Nate Cohn wonders about it:
[B]etween 3 and 4 million new black voters joined the electorate over the last two cycles, and they voted for Democrats in overwhelming numbers. If black turnout returns to 11 percent of the electorate and the next Democratic candidate only wins 90 percent of the black vote, there’s room for a shift of a net-4 million votes in the GOP’s direction. Whether those 4 million voters stay home or return to their Republican-lean from eight years ago could easily decide a close presidential election, especially in states like Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
(Photo: Mia Love, the mayor of Saratoga Springs, Utah and GOP congressional nominee, speaks at the 2012 Republican National Convention at the Tampa Bay Times Forum. By Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call. Love subsequently lost her congressional race by fewer than 3,000 votes.)