Is Jordan Next? Ctd

Nov 15 2012 @ 5:39pm

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Nicholas Seeley bets that Jordan is "extremely unlikely to fall, explode, crumble, or collapse":

It is not Somalia, or Yemen: it is a middle-income country with substantial state legitimacy, large bureaucratic institutions, and a strong military apparatus. Such countries do not crumble like sand castles when a wave hits. Negative development is possible, but it takes time – and usually a lot of waves. Nor is it Iraq, Syria, or Yemen, where the state has spent years establishing massive, coercive violence as a social norm. Jordan is unique, and actually has a lot going for it.

Earlier analysis here. Update from an Egyptian reader:

You quoted Seeley saying: "It is not Somalia, or Yemen: it is a middle-income country with substantial state legitimacy, large bureaucratic institutions, and a strong military apparatus." OMG, he's right. There's no other country in the Arab Spring like this. "Such countries do not crumble like sand castles when a wave hits." Yeah, that totally never ever happened before.

I suggest that Western analysts maybe stick to reporting and analyzing events that happened instead of making fortune-telling. The thing about Jordan that is different from Egypt and Tunisia, is that it's not a republic.

There's a line in the Arab world between republics and monarchies that kingdoms in the Gulf (Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc.) are very aware of and very worried that the Arab Spring might cross that line. Very early in the Arab Spring (May 2011), the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) accepted the membership of Jordan (which asked 15 years earlier) and offered membership to Morocco ignoring the technicality that neither is a Gulf state. I don't know if Jordan is next or not. What I do know is, a change in Jordan will show the way for the people of those monarchies, especially Morocco.

(Photo: Jordanian riot policemen face off against protesters during a demonstration against rising fuel costs at Jabal al-Hussein in Amman on November 14, 2012. Jordan was hit by a wave of protests in mounting anger over a whopping rise in fuel prices, with rioting and clashes erupting in Amman and other cities and a police station attacked. By Khalil Mazraawi/AFP/Getty Images)