Is Pillar A Prelude?


Michael Koplow explores the possibility that Pillar Of Defense will make an Israeli strike on Iran more likely:

If Iran is giving Fajr-5 missiles to Hamas, many Israelis are going to ask themselves whether the assumption that Iran would never supply Hamas with a nuclear missile is perhaps wishful thinking. It was much easier to not feel it necessary to launch a preemptive strike on Iran when there weren’t Iranian missiles being launched at Israeli cities, and my hunch is that the Iranian component to this is going to make Israelis more hawkish on the subject and think about how crowding in stairwells and bomb shelters is one thing for poorly made rockets and a whole different can of worms for Iranian nuclear missiles. 

Oh great. Tom Ricks is on the same page, posting an e-mail wondering whether Israel is prepping for an attack on Iran:

If Israel is on the cusp of preempting Iran, it would be a very smart thing to crush Iran's surrogates on the border and neutralize prepositioned weapons that might be brought to bear when the gloves come off with the Farsi folks.  At least, this is what I would do in advance of an attack on Iran. Tick-tock, tick-tock.

Previous coverage on the possible connection of Pillar Of Defense to Iran here.

(Photo: A doll lies in a damaged house after a rocket fired by Palestinian militants from the Gaza Strip landed in the southern Israeli city of Ashdod on November 17, 2012. By David Biumovitch/AFP/Getty.)