The Six-Year Itch, Ctd

Charlie Cook argued that, after six years in the White House, voters tend to punish the incumbent party. Seth Masket runs the numbers:

[S]tatistically speaking, six-year itch elections don't appear to be any worse for the president's party than other midterm elections. 2014 may be a tough year for Democrats, but only because midterm elections are almost always tough years for the president's party.

Drum adds:

[U]nless Republicans do something genuine to react to their 2012 losses, I'm not sure they can count on generic exhaustion with Democrats to sweep them to victory in 2014. They need to up their game.