Splitting Virginia’s electoral votes could actually force Republicans to win additional “blue” states. If Republicans win all of Virginia’s 13 electoral votes under the current system (together with Florida and Ohio), they’re just one state, like Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, or Pennsylvania, away. Under the congressional district proposal, Republicans would probably only win 9 of Virginia’s 13 electoral votes if they won the state. As a result of losing those 4 electoral votes, Republicans might need to win two of Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire instead of just one, at least if the GOP also lost Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Wisconsin.
But, if other states join Virginia, the calculus would change:
On its own, the Virginia plan won’t do much to reshape the electoral map. But the combination of Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin could be the ticket for Mr. Rubio or Mr. Bush to win the presidency while losing Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and every battleground state other than Florida and North Carolina.
Meanwhile, Molly Ball interviews Jordan Gehrke, the political strategist plotting with Ken Blackwell “to raise money for an effort to propose similar electoral reforms in states across the country.” Earlier Dish on the GOP’s shenanigans hereand here.