Roger Ebert reveals his Oscar predictions. He thinks Argo will win Best Picture:
[One] reason Ben Affleck’s film will win this year is that it’s a dashed entertaining example of what Hollywood always knew how to do, and seems to be forgetting: It’s a great story. Lives are at stake, yet comedy sneaks in. There’s a caper needing split-second timing and blind luck. It depends on story and not star power or a franchise. It’s Inspired By a True Story of the best possible kind: It makes the movie industry look good while based on an untrue story.
Alyssa sees other forces at work:
In a pool of strongly politically themed-movies, Argo is at the intersection of two important trend lines. It has a gloss of relevance, but the movie exists at a safe distance from actual events, and from shameful, damaging policies, that remain the subject of heated political debate. For all that we talk about Hollywood liberalism, the Academy appears to be converging around a movie that allows us to feel as good as possible about the way the United States handles the blowback of our foreign policy.