Nate Cohn believes that “the wave of new polls showing a decline in President Barack Obama’s approval rating are potentially important:”
It’s not that these polls show Republicans poised to take back the White House by 2016, or something. That’s way too far away. Instead, the polls give us an idea of which voters are peeling away from Obama and, therefore, might be most receptive to switching sides if the GOP could craft a message for them. Trying to win over the voters sticking with Obama would presumably be more difficult.
Today’s Pew Research poll paints a clear picture of the Obama defectors. They’re almost exclusively white voters without a college degree. Obama’s standing among minorities, college educated whites, and affluent whites has actually improved since the final Pew Research poll before last November’s presidential election. Instead, Obama’s support among white working-class voters has taken a huge hit, opening an unprecedented 41 point education gap among white voters. Incredibly, the poll now even shows Obama with a stronger approval rating among affluent whites than downscale whites—something that’s never happened for a Democrat in a presidential election.
Immigration reform? Still-lagging economy? Ailes propaganda? Guns?