Plumer passes along a chart on past government shutdowns:
Collender compares the current shutdown to past ones:
1. Most of these lapses were short or happened over a weekend. They were barely noticed at the time and are not memorable now.
2. The lapses were not typically government-wide. Instead, they only happened to one or two agencies or departments.
3. In many ways most important, until Carter Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti issued memorandums in 1980 and 1981 that set up new rules and standards, agencies and departments that suffered an appropriations lapse were allowed to continue to operate as if there was no lapse at all.
In other words, using today’s terminology, there were shutdowns before 1980, but the agencies and departments didn’t actually shutdown.
Collender expects this shutdown to last at least a week “because it will take that long for the impact of the shutdown to start to be felt and, therefore, to make ending it more politically acceptable.” Beutler wonders whether the shutdown will outlast the debt-limit fight:
Now that furloughs have begun and services are interrupted, the cry from the public to end the shutdown should escalate quickly over the course of the next week or so. And if Republicans don’t yield to that pressure, they’ll soon find themselves staring into an abyss. The debt limit will need to be increased just days later. And though the shutdown will probably reduce the pace of government expenditures enough to buy Congress a very small amount of time, the Treasury will come calling sooner than later. It would constitute another act of bizarreness for Boehner to call Congress back to raise the debt limit and then return to the regularly scheduled shutdown, already in progress.