Trende does some rough calculations:
The bottom line is this: If the national exchanges were functioning as well as the best-functioning state exchange — and encountering the same demand — we’d probably be on the low end of the administration’s acceptable enrollment range. If the middle state were representative of the country as a whole, we’d be below it, but not by an overwhelming amount. That’s not much, but it’s probably the best news supporters of the law have received in a while.
But Bob Laszewski passes along some bad news:
Health plans, with the kind of market share that would have to sign-up 100,000 to 200,000 people for the administration to hit its goal of 7 million people, are generally reporting they have enrolled only about 100 – 200 people over the first 35 days via Healthcare.gov.
He also reports that, among insurers “the confidence that this can all get fixed by December 1 is not high.” Allahpundit wonders what happens if healthcare.gov isn’t fixed by the end of this month, the Obama administration’s self-imposed deadline:
What does [Obama] do on December 1st if we’re still stuck in 404 hell? Allow insurers to bring back plans that have been canceled under the new ObamaCare regs? Extend the enrollment deadline next year from March 31st to some later date, which raises the risk of adverse selection problems for insurers? Delay the entire law until HHS gets its act together? Nothing but bad options here as far as the eye can see.