Chait acknowledges the role Paul Ryan played:
The Ryan-Murray deal will likely pass, despite opposition from the professional conservative movement, because it’s tiny enough to be uncontroversial while helping Republican leaders avert serious internal problems with the budget process. Ryan has given it his blessing, and as one Republican leadership aide puts it, “Paul Ryan is the Jesus of our conference.”
Albert R. Hunt sees the deal hurting Ryan’s chances for the presidency:
The budget compromise further complicates Ryan’s presidential ambitions. The deal, which still faces a tough slog in the House, has infuriated some anti-government conservatives and would be used against Ryan in any Republican presidential contest. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, a likely presidential aspirant, came out against the deal almost immediately after it was announced.
Collender also expects Ryan to take a hit:
Yes, I know that many are giving House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) high fives for putting the deal together. But there’s little doubt that he has hurt his credentials with the tea party wing of the GOP and it is critical to anyone who wants to run for president some day as Ryan supposedly wants to do. Ryan committed at least three sins in the eyes of the tea partiers: He collaborated with the enemy when he compromised with Patty Murray, he agreed to things that some tea parties are calling tax increases and he agreed to higher spending than would occur have occurred without the deal. Still don’t agree? Watch how many tea partiers, or representatives and senators with tea party primary challengers, vote against the deal.
Because the Beltway press can’t see a leaf flutter off a tree without asking how it will affect the next presidential election, Ryan’s brokering role here is inspiring some “did Ryan hurt himself in 2016?” columns. The existence of Chris Christie as a popular, centrist-looking figure with ties to major GOP donors is more harmful to Ryan than any political choices the budget chairman could possibly make. Still: No, the Tea Party (or whoever) won’t be angry at Ryan because the budget didn’t touch the benefits that older voters paid into for years.
(Photo: House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wisc., during a news conference where republican leaders discussed the new budget proposal on December 11, 2013. By Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call)