Reality Check

Kevin Drum declares that an Obama endorsement “might be the kiss of death this year”:

Obama Endorsement

Nate Rawlings summarizes other parts of the poll:

President Obama’s job approval rating sank to a new low of 41 percent in a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released Tuesday, forecasting political headwinds for the Democratic Party in the months leading up to November’s midterm elections. … Neither party, however, has a solid edge in terms of popularity. Republicans fared one point better than Democrats – 44 percent to 43 percent – on the question of which party voters would rather have running Congress, which is within the poll’s margin of error.

Cillizza looks for historical parallels:

One in three registered voters in the NBC-WSJ poll said that their vote for Congress this fall will be intended to signal opposition to President Obama. Compare that to the 24 percent who said their vote would be a way to show support for Obama and you have the enthusiasm gap between the two party bases that likely sunk (Alex) Sink on Tuesday.

Again, past NBC-WSJ data is instructive. On the eve of the 2010 election, 35 percent said their vote was a way to show support for Obama while 34 percent said it was to show optimism.  The danger for Obama — and his party — is if his current numbers continue to tumble into a place where George W. Bush found himself in 2006; in a late October NBC-WSJ poll, 37 percent said their vote was to show opposition to Bush while just 22 percent said it was to show support.

Morrissey digs deeper into the data:

The problem for Obama and Democrats in this poll is that his personal likeability no longer keeps his overall numbers afloat. The “personal feelings” rating for Obama is now 41/44, with 15% neutral, in this poll. At the beginning of October, Obama scored 47/41, and before the August “red line” debacle it was 48/40. The “very positive” rating in this survey of 21% is the lowest of the series; a year ago it was 30%, and at the time of the last election it was 34%.

Kilgore points out that there are other polls:

Do you want to make a case that Obamacare is sinking the Obama presidency, portending a catastrophic Democratic performance in November? Well, there’s a new NBC/WSJ poll out showing Obama’s approval/disapproval ratio sinking to a new all-time low of 41/54. But if you want to argue that Obama and Democrats are slowly recovering from bad vibes over the initial Obamacare rollout, there’s also a new Bloomberg poll out showing Obama’s job approval ratio improving from 42/55 in December to 48/48 today.