Friday on the Dish, Andrew went another round on whether he criticizes the President enough (follow-up here) and marvelled at Obama's Kenyan anti-colonial agenda to cut the debt. We flagged an important discussion of debt policy, debated the economic impact of the expiration of the full slate of Bush tax cuts with some readers, listened to … Continue reading The Weekly Wrap
Friday on the Dish, Andrew called out for help in the coming marrige equality fights, solicited more etch-a-sketch moments from readers, reupped "Ask Steven Pinker Anything," and shared documentation of an "emo killing" in Iraq. We kept up the debate on Beinart and settlements (here, here, and here), explained why Obama wasn't ready to bomb … Continue reading The Weekly Wrap
Scott Conroy bucks conventional thinking:
Gingrich’s continued presence in the campaign may be the only way that Romney can be denied the 1,144 delegates he needs to lock it up. If Gingrich were to drop out, various polls show that Santorum would garner the majority of the former speaker’s support. Nonetheless, in a two-man race with Romney, the math is more difficult for Santorum, not less. Romney figures to win enough of the delegates Gingrich otherwise would have taken to prevent Santorum from overtaking him.
Gingrich is making a version of this argument himself. Harry Enten's calculations don't agree:
First he needs to find a way to get rid of Gingrich:
Alana Goodman agrees that a Gingrich drop-out would make Santorum's nomination a real possibility:
Coming off his two victories in Alabama and Mississippi, Santorum has the momentum at this point to potentially take Illinois – and deal a devastating blow to the Romney campaign in the process. The latest poll from the Chicago Tribune shows Romney leading Santorum by just four points, 35 percent to 31 percent, with Gingrich trailing at 12 percent. If Gingrich drops out, endorses Santorum, and urges his supporters to vote for him, it could easily push the former Pennsylvania senator over the top in the state. And if, after dropping out, Gingrich agreed to pledge the delegates he’s already won to Santorum, it could completely change the dynamic of the race and actually make it competitive again.
Aaron Blake, on the other hand, appreciates Mitt's consistency in the South:
11.11 pm. I'm clicking over to Comedy Central at this point. My take-away?
Santorum won three states and basically tied in Ohio. That keeps him afloat with some forward direction, especially given the upcoming primary states where Santorum has a demographic edge. The fact that he did this well despite being buried by Romney ads and money in Ohio is a real achievement. Romney, for his part, still cannot win blue-collar votes and still cannot nail down evangelical support. He comes away with many more delegates, but few bragging rights. In Ohio, he won everywhere Obama will win in the fall.
If Newt bowed out, we might have a real cotest. But he won't. So we have, perhaps, the worst of all possible worlds for the GOP: a front-runner who cannot be stopped, but who is losing altitude against Obama with every vote, and being slimed by Republican rivals for at least another month. Even his stump speech has deteriorated. And his unfavorables continue a relentless rise.
Ugh.
11.06 pm. Given the current data, Rove and Trippi are calling it for Romney. And he has just taken the lead for the first time.
11.04 pm. Little things:
Margin for automatic recount in Ohio: .25 percent or less.
Oh God.
11 pm. Really, Newt should get out now:
[O]utside of Georgia, Mr. Gingrich is running in third place or worse in all states that have reported results so far. He is behind Mitt Romney in Oklahoma and Tennessee, and has only about 15 percent of the vote in Ohio — not enough to receive proportional delegates there, which would require a 20 percent margin. Nor has he shown any sign of life in the caucus states.
10.59 pm. A reader writes:
You mention Licking and Pickaway counties, but old favorites are Wood and neighboring Hancock counties. Oddly enough, both for Santorum.
But they changed his brown color on Fox News. For shame.
10.57 pm. A great night for Ron Paul:
Ron Paul quintupled his 2008 Virginia vote count, and because of the smaller turnout overall he octupled his percentage of the vote there. Paul tripled his 2008 result in Vermont, and he did the same in Oklahoma and Massachusetts. He is running ahead of his 2008 numbers in North Dakota, and he has a chance of scoring an upset in Idaho or Alaska.
10.48 pm. John Fund understates:
Given his crushing financial advantage, Romney should have done better tonight.
Ya think?
10.47 pm. Sounds about right:
To summarize: Romney has won his home state (MA), a liberal state that borders his home state (VT), and a state where his only opponent was Ron Paul (VA). He's lost everywhere else.
10.46 pm. Major hathos alert: Santorum's super-fans sing their own Super Tuesday song:
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7pv7sO5Gng%5D10.42 pm. Let's call Ohio. It's a tie, with Romney getting more delegates. That's not enough for Romney to claim a real victory and sustain any real momentum, even if he wins. So we're back where we started.
10.40 pm. If Romney couldn't win anywhere in the South or West, what's gonna happen next Tuesday, when Mississippi, Alabama, Missouri, and Kansas vote?
10.39 pm. Frum is letting Schadenfreude get the better of him. But it's entertaining:
People are comparing this to 1964. But let's remember that Barry Goldwater WON his Senate seat in 1958.
10.36 pm. Nerd zone:
In terms of delegate count, whether Santorum crosses 20% in Georgia is more important – and more suspenseful at moment – than who wins Ohio.
He's currently dead on at 20 percent, with 87 percent counted.
10.35 pm. Heh:
Remember the Simpsons where Homer is only employee who hasn't won Worker of the Week, and then they give it to a carbon rod? Romney=Homer.
10.29 pm. Could Democrats put Santorum ahead in Ohio?
According to exit polls, Democrats constituted 5 percent of the Ohio primary electorate, and 45 percent of them voted for Mr. Santorum. Just 25 percent voted for Mitt Romney. That translates roughly into a 1 or 2 percentage point bump for Mr. Santorum.
10.23 pm. Mitt's Southern weakness could be fatal in November:
Sure, Romney will win these states in the general election, but this is the heart of the Republican national governing coalition. This is where enthusiasm for the party's eventual nominee should be at its strongest. In 2008, Huckabee gave Sen. John McCain a run for his money in the South, but McCain won in South Carolina, Texas, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Missouri. George W. Bush dominated the South. Former Sen. Bob Dole dominated the South. President George H.W. Bush dominated the South. President Ronald Reagan dominated the South.
Of course, none of them was a Mormon who enacted universal healthcare in his home state, Massachusetts.
10.21 pm. How could Ohio counties called Licking and Pickaway not vote for Santorum?
10.20 pm. My basic position:
For me, it was always the question. The evangelical South controls the GOP and most of the Christianist leaders backed Santorum against Gingrich at their summit earlier this year. But Newt's Southern roots and mastery of right-wing populist rhetoric always struck me as potentially more sellable in, say, Texas, than the up-tight Bill Donohue-style theocon … Continue reading Can Santorum Win In The South?
As Shelly withdraws and Santorum surges in the polls, Newt is forced into a fundraising frenzy: Gingrich is doing everything he can to raise money to stay in the race. He is traveling to California on Monday to raise cash even though the state doesn’t vote until June. The campaign told the Atlanta Journal Constitution that Gingrich … Continue reading Is Gingrich Finished?
Douthat points to his debate performances:
[Perry] was fundamentally incapable of exercising the office of the presidency. We don’t elect a debater-in-chief, but the idea, floated by George Will of all people, that debates “test nothing pertinent to presidential duties” is equally false. They establish a minimal threshold that any politician seeking an office whose chief weapon is often the bully pulpit needs to be able to clear.
Buzzfeed Politics says, simply enough, that "running for president is hard":
Perry could have spent a couple of years as Barack Obama did: Using his elected office to conduct rolling seminars with policy experts; developing a years-long plan for national office; carefully picking the national issues with which to engage. Instead, Perry got into the race on what amounts to a lark. He leaves it badly damaged, limping home to Texas where he'll struggle to regain the clout and swagger he projected six months ago.
James Antle III partially blames campaign staff:
At times Perry's team appeared divided between people who were loyal to him but didn't know how to run a national, as opposed to statewide, campaign and those with a better feel for national politics who were less invested in Perry personally. The end result was that the Texas governor who once looked like the likely Republican nominee ended up underperforming Fred Thompson at every juncture.
Larison concentrates on Perry's foreign policy flubs:
Yesterday, Factcheck.org took a look at Mitt Romney’s dubious claim that he created 100,000 jobs, a claim he repeated in the video above. Tim Murphy summarizes: The bottom line is that the 100,000 figure was not actually calculated; it was just a composite of a couple of data points, and there’s no evidence that it’s actually a “net” … Continue reading New Hampshire Debate Reax
11 pm. Oh, and Diane was much better this time. But why is Stephanopoulos still droning on on Sunday morning when Jon Karl and Jake Tapper are so, so, so much better at what they do – and much less compromised by their past? 10.57 pm. One more thing – and I acknowledge I have … Continue reading Live-Blogging The New Hampshire Debate
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