Larison declares that there “is no way to know what long-term effect the defeat of the Syria resolution might have on the actions of future presidents, and it is even less certain how other governments would interpret a Congressional rejection of the resolution”:
It is always possible that other presidents will view this episode as proof that going to Congress is an avoidable risk that they won’t want to take, in which case it will result in the opposite of what many opponents of the resolution prefer. On the other hand, some may take it as a reminder that presidents should not propose taking military action without having a much stronger case for doing so than Obama has, and that could make future administrations more reluctant to wage unnecessary wars.
Waldman guesses that Obama will go to war with or without Congressional support:
It’s hard to imagine the Obama administration will pull back. After all, they’ve said quite clearly that they believe they don’t need Congress’ approval, and they will have spent weeks making the case that striking Syria is utterly vital to U.S. national-security interests. It would seem likely they’d go ahead and launch some missiles anyway.
Peter Baker’s sources in the administration suggest otherwise:
Although Mr. Obama has asserted that he has the authority to order the strike on Syria even if Congress says no, White House aides consider that almost unthinkable. As a practical matter, it would leave him more isolated than ever and seemingly in defiance of the public’s will at home. As a political matter, it would almost surely set off an effort in the House to impeach him, which even if it went nowhere could be distracting and draining.
The result? A return to constitutional democracy and a huge, vital rebuff to the military-industrial complex that has been on steroids since 2001. The president can still, as I have argued, insist on collective action and use the UN to expose the indifference to gassing children in their scores by the thugs in Moscow and the opportunists in Beijing. And that kind of scrutiny will likely force Russia and Iran to tell Assad to cool it. Not bad a set of consequences when you think about it.
The Dish 