Noam Scheiber’s best guess:
Setting aside the hourly thrust and parry between Democrats and Republicans, here’s how the shutdown is likely to end: Senate Majority Harry Reid is going to strike a deal with his Republican counterpart Mitch McConnell at some point in the next few days. The deal will reopen the government for a medium length of time—possibly till January 15, when the next round of sequester cuts kick in—giving the two sides time to replace the sequester with something more appealing. The deal will also raise the debt ceiling—maybe for as little as a few months, maybe until after the 2014 election. Reid will give up almost no concessions in return for any of this, with the exception of one or two symbolic items, and he’ll probably get some higher-than-sequester level of government funding (a top Democratic priority) for a month or two starting later this year. Pretty much every Democrat in the Senate will vote for the deal, along with at least five and maybe as many as 20 Republicans.
Here’s Reid’s actual proposal today, via Politico:
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has privately offered Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell a deal that would reopen the government until mid-to-late December while extending the U.S. debt ceiling until next year, according to several sources familiar with the talks.
The proposal would set up a framework for larger budget negotiations with the House over the automatic sequestration spending cuts and other major deficit issues, the sources said. Moreover, Senate Democrats are open to delaying Obamacare’s medical device tax and a requirement that those receiving Obamacare subsidies be subject to income verification — but they would have to get something from Republicans in return, sources said.
I’d press for a debt ceiling raise beyond the next Congressional elections as a key element of a deal. Beutler notes McConnell’s new role:
Mitch McConnell has suddenly become the lead Republican negotiator and all the action has shifted to the Senate. If McConnell had any confidence that Boehner could pull this off, Boehner would still be at the center of the story. McConnell has a primary challenger. He wants to oppose deals, not cut them. If there were any way for Boehner to get out of the mess on his own, McConnell would have let him try. His return to relevance demonstrates a complete loss of faith in his counterpart.
(Photo: U.S. President Barack Obama meets with Senate Democratic leadership, including Senate Majority Leader Sen. Harry Reid, to discuss the government shutdown and the nation’s debt ceiling in the Oval Office of the White House October 12, 2013 in Washington, DC. The U.S. Government is on its 12th day of a shutdown. By Alex Wong/Getty Images.)
The Dish 