Yesterday, Stan Collender claimed that it “still no better than 50-50 … that the debt ceiling will be raised by October 17”:
One of the biggest problem[s] with the current shutdown/debt ceiling situation is that no one has any assurance that the person they’re negotiating with has any authority to agree to anything. The president can’t be sure congressional Democrats will go along with what he might agree to with Republicans, Boehner absolutely knows there is no guarantee that House and Senate Republicans will follow his lead and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) won’t be followed blindly by Senate Republicans. In other words, even if there were a deal it is not clear who could agree to it.
This, and the likelihood of simple miscalculation of time, could render any agreement moot, and tip the markets into a tailspin, along with our recovery. I just hope that sense of urgency exists in these negotiating rooms. The point is not that we should get out of this fiasco by the skin of our teeth – but that a functioning country never gets even close to this kind of potential meltdown. Every day that passes erodes the credibility of the US economy and government, and thereby its currency. And at some point, the erosion becomes a mudslide.
The Dish 