More than 30 people are dead and dozens injured after back-to-back suicide bombings struck on Sunday and Monday in the Russian city of Volgograd, where a similar attack occurred in October. Islamists from the Caucasus are the prime suspects. Josh Marshall passes along CCTV video of one of the bombings:
Daisy Sindelar ponders the significance of the target:
Volgograd Oblast, the site of a massive purge of 1980s-era Communist authorities, is still viewed as one of Russia’s most corrupt regions. It is unclear, however, what bearing that might have on its sudden terrorist appeal. Other possibilities include the fact that the city is set to serve as a host during the 2018 soccer World Cup, or the fact that Volgograd, formerly known as Stalingrad, is the site of one of the bloodiest World War II battles and a critical turning point in the war. Writing on the website of the Carnegie Moscow Center, director Dmitry Trenin notes that the city, “a symbol of Russia’s tragedy and triumph in World War II, has been singled out by the terrorists precisely because of its status in people’s minds.” Dmitry Malashenko, a Caucasus expert with Carnegie Moscow, adds that ultimately, Volgograd may simply be a convenient insurgent testing ground. “It’s clear there’s some kind of smooth-functioning system [in Volgograd] that suits someone’s purposes. Whether that someone is an organization, locals, or people from outside, we don’t know. But the fact that there have been three attacks in a row in one region — excuse me, but it’s a slap in the face of our authorities,” Malashenko said.
Fred Weir relays local concerns that this event is just an opening act:
Russian media reports suggest that Sochi itself, garrisoned with around 40,000 special police and protected by an array of high-tech security measures, as well as the capital city of Moscow, may have been made relatively impregnable to terrorist infiltration. But scores of other large Russian cities, such as Volgograd, have received less attention and clearly remain vulnerable. … Andrei Soldatov, editor of Agentura.ru, an online journal that studies the security services, warns that the two Volgograd attacks in recent months demonstrate that terrorists from the turbulent north Caucasus have the capability to strike repeatedly at major Russian targets. “The real fear is that these Volgograd bombings could be diversionary attacks,” he says. “This has happened before, we know the terrorists use such tactics. If they are planning something big, attacks like this can distract the security forces, make them divert resources from the main target, and generally sow uncertainty everywhere. . . They clearly have the ability to strike beyond the north Caucasus region, and the people to carry it out. There is no reason to assume that Sochi and Moscow are safe, just because they’re hitting Volgograd,” he says.
But Peter Weber doubts that the bombings will interfere with the upcoming Sochi Olympics:
It’s hard to imagine how Russia could lock down Sochi any further. Starting Jan. 7, only officially registered vehicles will be given access to Sochi and only visitors with special passes will be allowed into the region. Russia has spent months sweeping neighborhoods and targeting potential attackers in the North Caucusus and across the border in Georgia. “Sochi will be turned into a veritable fortress,” says Leonid Bershidsky at Bloomberg View. Putin will deploy all the resources of Russia’s formidable intelligence and counterterrorism apparatus to make sure Sochi goes off without a hitch. And Bershidsky adds, “Law enforcement chiefs know Putin won’t forgive them for allowing anyone to mess with an Olympic showcase that has cost $48 billion to stage.” …
Sochi and the people who travel there for the Games may be safe — or as safe as humanly possible. Still, if extremists continue to bomb train stations and other public transportation in Russia, enough people could decide to skip the Olympics to mar the Sochi Games with half-empty stadiums. Perhaps even a few countries will sit out this Winter Olympics. But here’s how the Volgograd bombings may actually help Putin: So far the Western coverage of the Games has been mixed with protests over Russia’s anti-gay laws. President Obama is pointedly sending over a delegation with two openly gay athletes, for example. Russia is already calling for international solidarity, and if the focus of the Games shifts to thwarting terrorism, history tells us that terrorism threats trump just about every other issue. After all, fighting Islamist terrorists is one of the few things Putin’s Russia and Obama’s America have in common.
The Dish 