Beutler flags evidence that the ACA “is experiencing an enrollment surge”:
Charles Gaba — an ACA supporter and data Hoover — has been documenting the March surge, state by state on his Twitter account and his site, ACAsignups.net. Gaba has the best numbers out there, and has been accurately forecasting official enrollment statistics for weeks. He currently projects total exchange enrollment will hit 6.2 million by the end of the month, not counting enrollment in off-exchange plans, and puts the grand beneficiary total (including Medicaid beneficiaries and “young invincibles” on their parents’ plans) at 11.9-15.6 million as of Saturday. Conservatives are thus, to no one’s surprise, furiously attempting to “un-skew” his figures.
But Kate Pickert notes that many Americans are still uninformed about the March 31st enrollment deadline:
The latest tracking poll from the Kaiser Family Foundation finds that, among uninsured adults, 43% don’t know when the deadline is or refused to answer. Five percent believe the deadline has already passed and 13% think it’s later this year.
Which may be why the administration is relaxing the deadline slightly. Avik Roy pans the extension:
It’s yet another improvisation by the administration, designed to get as many people under the Obamacare tent as possible, to ensure that the law is impervious to repeal. But the upshot is that people who haven’t bought insurance, and recently fallen ill, can now buy coverage at the old rate. So while the extension may increase enrollment figures by a few hundred thousand people, it will also ensure that the pool of people signing up is even sicker and older than it would have been otherwise.
Arit John is much calmer:
The Washington Post reported on Tuesday night that people who attempt to enroll in a health care plan through the federal exchange by mid-April will be given a special enrollment period of an unknown length. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that the Obama administration was planning on creating some kind of work around for people who experienced technical problems. While detractors of the law will argue that this is another sign of “the unintended consequences of the Democrats’ failed healthcare law,” as Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus put it, it’s not. Insurance companies expected this and are waiting to see what the full plan is, and the precedent for special enrollment periods is well established.
Drum is on the same page:
Unlike the renewal delay and the employer mandate delay, which are both calculatedly political and of long duration, this one is merely an attempt to allow as many people as possible to enroll. It’s pretty justifiable, and it only extends the deadline by a few weeks. Nothing to get hot and bothered about.
Finally, taking a step back from today’s news, Dylan Scott sets the bar for Obamacare’s long-term success:
The real data for measuring Obamacare’s success aren’t in yet, but they eventually will be. At the top of the list: What happens with premiums in 2015? Plus: Do insurance companies leave the market or enter it? And the ultimate barometer: Has the number of uninsured Americans dropped significantly?
In simpler terms: Did Obamacare, in year one, create a sustainable insurance market for the long term?
The Dish 