The forecasts increasingly favor Republicans:
At this point, Democrats hoping for an upset are largely banking on the polls being wrong. Nate Silver explains:
The FiveThirtyEight model accounts for the possibility that the polls could be systematically biased — in either direction. If I instead tell the model to assume the polls have no overall bias — even though they might be off in particular states — the Democrats’ chances of keeping the Senate would be just 17 percent. Democrats are becoming increasingly dependent on the possibility that the polls will prove to be “skewed.”
But Silver notes that the polls “could be biased against Republicans, too”:
Historically, that’s been the case often than not in red states like the ones where some of the most crucial Senate races are being held.
Enten thinks “the more pressing question now may be the size of the Republican majority come next Congress”:
New polls out this weekend suggest that Republicans may not just win the six seats they need for control, but quite possibly eight seats — Republicans now have a 41.4 percent chance of doing just that. … If we add up all the states where Republicans lead, they will win eight seats for 53 seats in the next Senate. Sure, Democrats still have chances in Alaska, Colorado, Georgia and Iowa. But the Republican position is holding steady, if not improving, in all the states they need for a majority.
Chris Cillizza examines the toss-up Senate races:
* Alaska (Democratic controlled): Election Lab 79 percent Republican, LEO 67 percent Republican, FiveThirtyEight 71 percent Republican
* Georgia (Republican controlled): Election Lab 67 percent Republican, LEO 58 percent Republican, FiveThirtyEight 68 percent Republican
* Iowa (D): Election Lab 89 percent Republican, LEO 68 percent Republican, FiveThirtyEight 71 percent Republican
* Kansas (R): Election Lab 97 percent Republican, LEO 51 percent Independent, FiveThirtyEight 54 percent Independent
The Dish 