The Shaky Plan To Avoid A Shutdown

Hill renews its' machinations after the holiday break, in Washington, DC.

Russell Berman summarizes it:

Rather than risk a government shutdown after federal funding expires next week, Boehner proposed a plan to approve an omnibus appropriations bill that would fund the government through the end of September with one exception: The Department of Homeland Security would receive money only through March, allowing the new Republican majority in Congress next year to take another try at blocking Obama’s directive. The House would separately vote—as soon as this week—on a largely symbolic measure disapproving of the president’s action and giving lawmakers an opportunity to formally express their opposition.

But House Republicans aren’t onboard:

Hardline conservatives who have caused problems for leaders for years were not falling in line. These conservatives estimate their ranks are 30 to 40, enough to derail a vote. That swelling Republican opposition gives Pelosi and her down-in-the-dumps House Democrats some unexpected power: the ability to rescue Boehner’s Republican Conference as Democrats have again and again in the big fights of the past three years.

Waldman quips:

For these guys, fighting their own party leaders is the whole point. The real enemy isn’t the Romans, it’s the Judean People’s Front.

Beutler calls Boehner’s proposal “basically complete surrender”:

As threats go, this is just about the opposite of threatening not to increase the debt limit. In a debt limit fight, the threat sounds mildeven politically popularwhile the actual stakes are horrific. Threatening to shut down the Department of Homeland Security, by contrast, sounds insanely reckless, but would actually accomplish very little, and, most importantly, it would leave the deportation program completely intact.

DHS secretary Jeh Johnson is already warning that defunding the department will have significant impacts on security. Allahpundit imagines how this will play out:

Think Boehner and McConnell are going to pull the plug on DHS in March and risk a White House media campaign along these lines, at a moment when people like Christie and Rubio are announcing they’re running for president to rebuild America’s national defense? Me neither. The only way out is to supersede Obama’s order by passing some immigration bills of their own — which, coincidentally, is what Jeb Bush encouraged them to do at a fundraiser yesterday that included McConnell. Raul Labrador also expects to see some Republican bills on immigration next year.

Jennifer Rubin warns that “the American people overwhelmingly don’t want a shutdown, and a majority would blame the GOP if one occurred”:

In sum, there is no way to achieve what Heritage Action wants now with no Senate majority and Obama in the White House. (Sound familiar?) The GOP can take a run at separately withholding funding on immigration after a short-term funding measure runs out next year, but even then the fee-based system will likely continue.

Mataconis agrees that a shutdown would be terrible for the GOP:

A new CNN/ORC poll, for example, shows that 50 percent of those surveyed would blame a shutdown on Congressional Republicans while only 33 percent would blame President Obama and 13% would blame both parties equally. These numbers nearly the same as they were prior to the shutdown in October 2013 which, by all accounts, was an all around disaster for the GOP tempered only by the fact that it was quickly followed by the disastrous rollout of the Affordable Care Act and that it occurred sufficiently in advance of the 2014 midterms to allow Republicans to recover to a significant degree. This time, a shutdown would occur just before the GOP takes control of Congress and would threaten to taint public opinion of the new Congress from Day One.

(Photo: Speaker of the House Rep. John Boehner(R-OH) listens to Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers(R-WA) make remarks after a meeting on upcoming spending legislation, on December, 02, 2014 in Washington, DC. By Bill O’Leary/The Washington Post via Getty Images)