Category: Iraq

The president is quietly letting the world know that he has no intention of removing any non-surge troops before he leaves office, maximizing the enmeshment of the US in the occupation of the Middle East. He also intends to keep his plans to build major permanent military bases there, whatever the Congress or the American people think. We know the latter because of a signing statement just issued:

One section Bush targeted created a statute that forbids spending taxpayer money "to establish any military installation or base for the purpose of providing for the permanent stationing of United States Armed Forces in Iraq" or "to exercise United States control of the oil resources of Iraq."

The Bush administration is negotiating a long-term agreement with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. The agreement is to include the basing of US troops in Iraq after 2008, as well as security guarantees and other economic and political ties between the United States and Iraq.

The negotiations have drawn fire in part because the administration has said it does not intend to designate the compact as a "treaty," and so will not submit it to Congress for approval. Critics are also concerned Bush might lock the United States into a deal that would make it difficult for the next president to withdraw US troops from Iraq.

Bush is doing all he can to make the occupation of Iraq a permanent feature of global politics for the rest of our lives. It’s his legacy and he’s determined to make it the next president’s as well.

Uh-oh:

U.S. officials say they believe the law is likely to result in more ex-Baathists returning to government and hope none will be removed. But they recognize that the outcome depends on implementation, which will be overseen largely by a seven-member commission nominated by the Iraqi cabinet and confirmed by parliament.

"Will they name people who are liberal and nonpartisan, or is it going to be perceived as in the control of the people who have an agenda to purge Sunni Arab influence?" said a senior U.S. official. "That’s the first thing people will look at."

One antidote to campaign insanity is a brief purview of what on earth has just happened to the Middle East and what that might mean for the future. If that sounds worthy, you’re wrong. Jeffrey Goldberg’s new essay is one of those big, blue-sky think-pieces whose black humor actually made me laugh out loud at several points. Here’s a flavor from a Kurdish prison in Iraq:

The interrogator asked me if I had any questions for Omar. Yes, I said: Have you been tortured in this prison?

“No,” he said.

“What would you do if you were to be released from prison right now?”

“I would get a knife and cut your head off,” he said.

At this, the interrogator smacked Omar across the face with the Koran.

Omar yelped in shock. The interrogator said: “Don’t talk that way to a guest!”

Reality is likely to make one no more pessimistic than optimistic. The region defies both responses, I think. There’s a great NPod anecdote too.

A reader writes:

Bainbridge is focused on finding a way to package the problem to help his friends at the polls. He needs to focus on a way out for us; indeed, we all do. The public debate so far is "the surge is working" vs. "the surge failed." This is infantile nonsense. There are two tracks, which must be considered independently. One is the military track. Here the military has performed consistently with plans, but at a very dramatic cost (I am talking more about treasure than blood, but the latter is not to be dismissed lightly). 

The second is the political track. This has been a disaster. The situation has gotten continuously worse through 2007 because of the political disintegration in Iraq.

The centrifugal forces are more troubling than most seem to believe.  It’s not simply Kurd v. Sunni v. Shiia. The Shiia themselves are hopelessly fragmented. The US has all but completely lost its influence within the Maliki Government (this is the reason for the steady trickle of coup rumors). Remember that Baghdad refused to go to Annapolis.  That was a calculated slap in the face to Bush, just on the point on which Baghdad thought they could most embarrass him. Just think about it–how do you manage to do this with such massive resources in cash and such a powerful military presence at your fingertips? It’s a demonstration of the unequaled incompetence of the Bush Administration. And into this vacuum of failing American power steps Iran, exercising more robust influence than ever before. And that in turn eggs the Saudis and Gulf Arabs to their undercover dealings with the Sunnis.

So the US military achieved its military objective at great cost. But political ineptitude means that the US will have frightfully little political gain from the military’s sacrifice. We are looking at a situation in which our friends are ever more eager to wish us away, and even our friends are afraid to be publicly associated with us. This is a disastrous result.

But how many analysts take the time and make the effort to look just a little deeper into the situation?  The superficiality of the coverage and debate is frightening.  Iraq is a very big deal.  The threat to us is enormous. And there are no obvious or easy solutions, none.  It will be a matter of picking the least bad of a series of horrible alternatives.  Bush is to blame, of course.  Let’s note that for the record. But let’s be focused on finding our way forward in a field of quicksand.

Bainbridge sees this rubric as a reason to be more optimistic about eventual withdrawal from Iraq. My fear that he’s wrong stems from a few factors. First, 160,000 troops is not small, in the sense of a minor military engagement. Over 100,000 troops for at least ten years is not a small war by any stretch of the imagination. Secondly, this is Iraq. It is sui generis. It has foiled and defeated everyone who has tried to govern it for more than a very short length of time. It is primarily Arab and Muslim. If you do not believe that the Arab Middle East is one of the least tractable, most mysterious, inherently ungovernable regions on the planet, then you could muster some optimism. But any purview of history will disabuse you. This is a big war, sapping and trapping us for the rest of our lives.

Megan – who’s spent some time crunching casualty numbers and debunking the Lancet study – thinks this number should be taken seriously. It’s a horrifying number.

And he left a posthumous post to be remembered by:

I had a pretty good life, as I noted above. Sure, all things being equal I would have preferred to have more time, but I have no business complaining with all the good fortune I’ve enjoyed in my life. So if you’re up for that, put on a little 80s music (preferably vintage 1980-1984), grab a Coke and have a drink with me. If you have it, throw ‘Freedom Isn’t Free’ from the Team America soundtrack in; if you can’t laugh at that song, I think you need to lighten up a little. I’m dead, but if you’re reading this, you’re not, so take a moment to enjoy that happy fact.