BROKEN CHINA

I think the China episode says a lot about our new administration. It says that we will have very few emotionally satisfying episodes in the next four years. This is a principled but pragmatic government. The end-game they negotiated was neither a clear victory for the U.S. nor a clear win for Beijing. A clear win for us would have been the return of the aircraft and an apology from them for bringing it down. A clear win for them would have been an apology from us for flying in international airspace and for causing the accident. As it is, I see no problem with the etymological hair-splitting that settled the issue. Etymological hair-splitting is what diplomacy is all about, which is why it was once conducted in the language most conducive to subtle deception, French. The revanchist Right will have a cow about this; and Bill Kristol and Bob Kagan will blow a gasket. Who cares? China is not the Soviet Union; it is enmeshed into the international trading system in ways the Soviets never were; it has no intention of global hegemony, merely regional power, which it has every right to. It’s a tyranny, though, and an unstable one, which will require a firm but delicate touch in the next few decades – a combination of free trade and firm military deterrence. I don’t believe the Chinese will interpret this as weakness. I think they will interpret this as the forbearance that comes from strength. And that’s exactly what Bush provided. The polls have given him a six point boost from this so far. I bet they’ll see a further boost now. This, in my view, was the kind of grown-up leadership we lacked for eight years. I’m glad it’s back.