D’OH!

Could I have been more wrong about the British elections? I guess my friendship got the better of me. Bottom-line: it was the same result as last time with a smidgen of an improvement for the Tories. The turn-out, however, doesn’t exactly portend a triumph for Tony Blair. It was the lowest turnout in Britain since 1918. Most people, it seems, were disillusioned with Labour but felt they deserved a second term after 18 years of the Tories to make good on their promises to improve the public services. Alas, the Blairites won’t and they can’t. The way that healthcare is provided in Britain is the last remnant of the Soviet Union left on the planet – a vast, bureaucratic, dilapidated, under-funded, sclerotic rationing system designed in the mid 1940s – and Labour is committed to pouring even more resources into it. What William should have done – and what his natural caution prevented him from doing – was to stake out a position much more radical: a retrenchment of the National Health Service, a vast expansion of private healthcare, more independence for schools, much lower taxation, and opposition to the euro. As it stands, Labour now has four more years of near-dictatorial powers, with pressure from the left to use it to drag Britain back away from the reforms of the Thatcher years. Blair won’t do that – he’s too smart. But he’s also trapped – between moving right to privatize parts of the public services in order to deliver and staying on the left to keep his own party together. So more water-treading until the Tories come up with a real policy alternative. As I write – at 3am New York time – the news is that my old buddy William Hague has announced his intention to resign as party leader. I was wrong again. Poor William. An uphill struggle, a good campaign, but not enough. Classy of him to take responsibility. Deeply sad (at least from my point of view) that he had to.

HIV-HUH?: My skeptical look at the alleged recent rise in HIV infections is posted opposite in the new TRB. It’s based on nothing but the CDC’s latest studies – and the absence of much solid data behind them.