So far, the administration’s response to the inevitable avalanche of stories about the disappearing budget surplus has not exactly been encouraging. Yes, the critical rhetorical move by the president has already been made – but he needs to make it a central theme of the next few months if it is to get through. He should quickly and loudly hail the disappearance of the surplus as a critical goal for his administration. Call it the balanced budget strategy. Here’s a rough rhetorical outline: The surplus is simply the people’s money. If left in D.C., it’s at risk of being spent by the government. It should be ferried back to the people before their benighted leaders get their grubby little hands on it. Bush should criticize Republicans as well as Democrats for this, a triangulation that can only help his ratings. He should line-item veto pork – especially corporate welfare. He should point out the 8 percent increase in domestic discretionary spending in the last fiscal year as an indication of Congress’s lack of self-discipline, and ask the public whether they want the surplus to go into more government spending or back into their own pockets. Above all, he mustn’t play defense. If he does, he’ll be killed. This is the central debate of the fall, and Bush needs to get his strategy organized now.
FINALLY, A REAL INTERVIEW: Check out Mike Isikoff’s interesting dialogue with Gary Condit in Newsweek. For the first time, an interviewer seems interested in the relevant facts of the case. And for the first time, Condit makes some sort of sense. He’s an uptight guy who clearly doesn’t get today’s media culture, and who stumbled badly into a slow news summer. He still won’t say what he easily could to defend himself, by giving his account of the first police interview in which he allegedly impeded the investigation. His reason? That’s the police’s business, not the media’s. He seems to be unaware that in politics today, even cooperating with a police investigation must always be done with an eye to spin, and media strategy.
RUNNING THE NUMBERS: As to the Chung interview, a reader ran it through a computer, comparing it with Jim Lehrer’s interview with Bill Clinton when the Lewinsky scandal broke. Nothing mind-blowing in the data – but something worth thinking about nonetheless. Chung had 2,333 words of questions and interrupted Condit 27 times. Lehrer had 1,463 words in his questions and one interruption. Condit was allowed 4,040 words in response compared with Clinton’s 6,842. For every word Chung spoke, Condit got back 1.73. For every word Lehrer uttered, Clinton replied with 4.68. This is testament to the fact that the Chung interview wasn’t really an interview; it was a public execution. It’s also testament to Bill Clinton’s immensely superior political and theatrical skills. As we watch lesser mortals see their careers explode when they haven’t even been accused of anything, it’s worth remembering the amazing genius of a man who, for misdeeds far more legally and ethically serious than Condit’s, got away virtually unharmed.
MICKEY GLOATS: Mickey Kaus thinks it’s deeply embarrassing for me to have predicted “a small chance [Condit will] simply blow this non-scandal away,” in his interview Thursday night. He says it’s up there with Will Saletan’s “Bush is toast” prediction during the campaign last fall. Well, if Will Saletan had said that there was “a small chance” that Bush was toast, would anyone have remembered? (He seems to have missed my only surefire prediction about the interview: that Chung would ask Condit if he killed Chandra Levy. She did.)