No surprise that Hans Blix wants more time; that January 27 is now seen as the “beginning” of the arms inspection; or that other countries are quite happy to see the process drawn out indefinitely. This was always the danger of the U.N. route. The administration, as is its wont, seems to be saying almost nothing about its plans, which worries people like me. We can only hope that its a way to out-psyche Saddam. But it’s beginning to look like Saddam is out-psyching Bush. The question will therefore soon arise: can we wait until the autumn? My own view is that this would be a disaster. There is absolutely no guarantee that any weapons of mass destruction will be found by Blix’s merry men by then; and the long summer and fall will be a golden opportunity for other rogue states to take advantage of the U.S.’s preoccupation in the Gulf. Those who oppose the war now will oppose it then. And there will be further opportunities for terrorist attacks on the West. Moreover, nothing would galvanize our enemies more than to see how timorous Washington is when dealing with a murderous dictator who has violated the terms of the 1991 truce and continues to thumb his nose at the world. Our perceived weakness toward Saddam has already emboldened the North Koreans (whom it appears we are now willing to appease as well). It will embolden others – from the meddlesome French to the American left. What Bush is in danger of drifting into is Clintonism – dragged along by events, rather than determining them, acquiescing in evil rather than confronting it, and coming ever so close to appearing easily knocked off course. That hasn’t happened yet. But the danger signs are there. Saddam was right. Time is on his side. As we wait and wait for a conclusion we cannot even know will come, the anti-war lobby in this country will gain strength; and the remarkable success we have so far enjoyed in preventing another catastrophic terrorist attack will merely serve to lull Americans into another false sense of security. I’m not panicking – yet. But a question keeps nagging: Are we at war or not? If we are, when on earth are we going to get serious?
A GOOD SIGN: This letter to the Journal of the American Medical Association is both reassuring and a little unnerving. A patient treated with radioactive iodine was picked up and strip-searched twice by the cops in the New York subway. Translation: they’re monitoring New York City for radioactivity. I’ve long believed a dirty bomb of some sort is just a matter of time. So it’s good to see the authorities have made some preparation.
IS GRAHAM A GO? The latest report suggests he might be. He could be a really strong candidate – especially as veep.
UNDER-ESTIMATING INTEGRATION?: Fascinating story in the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that suggests our old stereotypes about profound racial residential segregation – especially in the MidWest, Northeast and South – may be based on a fallacy. By analyzing racial integration block by block rather than by census tract, a new study finds far more racial mixing than previously thought. Encouraging, no? Or is there a catch here?
THE ACCIDENT OF EMPIRE: Nice review of my old friend Niall Ferguson’s latest TV series on the British empire by William Rees Mogg in the Times (London). The key to imperial power? Luck and happenstance:
Empires come into existence, or grow, largely in response to threats or problems. All empires, in the benefits they provide and the damage they do, reflect the culture of the whole nation. The French were unlucky in that their early empire was pre-revolutionary, before France had developed democracy or freedom of trade or speech. The English were luckier that their empire was substantially post-revolutionary; almost all of it was acquired after the Civil War, and most of it after the revolution of 1688. The Americans have been luckiest of all, in that their empire came after the War of Independence and the Civil War. The US empire really started in 1898, with the war in Cuba against Spain. The new American empire is global and powerful, but technologically advanced, liberal and democratic. As the British Empire dwindled and disappeared, an essentially benign American empire has helped to secure the stability of a very vulnerable world.
Yes – worth remembering that in the face of the usual far-left blather: “essentially benign.”
The Dish 