Bush’s ratings have now begun a “Krugman soar”. Actually, they’ve bumped up a little since the State of the Union. But the significant jump in the numbers favoring war – even without U.N. sanction – strikes me as more than just a bounce. The French maneuvering has, I think, ticked off a lot of people. The Blix report was a huge victory for the administration; and Blair’s public support has helped reassure nervous unilateralists. But I also think the debate has now been raging for months now and we’re beginning to reach a consensus: reluctant engagement with an unavoidable problem. Key detail:
Taken together, nearly four in 10 respondents expected the conflict would be relatively long and relatively bloody. But even among those who most fear a high-cost war, a narrow majority – 52 percent – still favors taking military action against Iraq.
This is good news. I have a feeling the war will be much more difficult than some triumphalists are now arguing. And if our troops face chemical or biological weapons (which, of course, Saddam doesn’t have) then the anti-war forces will demand withdrawal before completion. All of which makes it all the more important that Americans have a sober and adult view of the risks involved. I think they do. Which is another reason they want a risky war now rather than an even risker war later.
BACK TO THE FUTURE: “‘We are happy that it broke up,’ Saddam government employee Abdul Jabbar al-Quraishi said. ‘God wants to show that his might is greater than the Americans. They have encroached on our country. God is avenging us,’ he said.” – Reuters, Saturday.
“The news of Roosevelt’s death on 12 April 1945 had stirred a flicker of optimism in the Berlin bunker… When Frederick the Great of Prussia faced defeat by the combined armies of Russia, Austria, and France in the Seven Years War, the tsarina Elisabeth had unexpectedly died, to be succeeded by a tsar who was Frederick’s admirer; the alliance then collapsed and Frederick’s Prussia survived. In April 1945, on hearing the news of the President’s passing, Goebbels exclaimed, ‘the tsarina is dead,’ and telephoned Hitler ‘in an ecstasy’ to ‘congratulate’ him. ‘It is the turning point,’ he said, ‘it is written in the stars.'” – from John Keegan’s “The Second World War.”
THE ECONOMICS OF MUNCHIES: Britain’s economy gets ready to deal with the economic and cultural consequences of legalized out-of-the-closet pot-smoking. Buy Doritos shares. And install dimmer switches in Starbucks.
SADDAM AND BOOZE: “A few weeks ago, on C-SPAN, I heard an Iraqi ex-pat and “Saddam expert” state that the leader of Iraq was formerly addicted to “Johnny Walker” scotch. Having been married to an honest to goodness alcoholic for 25 years, and having made a study of the subject ever since getting off that roller coaster, I found this remark revealing. At a stretch, it could explain a great deal about Saddam and his actions.” – more commentary on the Letters Page.
JULIE GETS IT: “If you really think it’s better for more people to die over decades under a tyrannical regime than for fewer people to die during a brief attack by an outside power, you’re really weird and nationalistic and not any sort of socialist that I recognise. And that’s where you link up with all those nasty rightwing columnists who are so opposed to fighting Iraq; they, too, believe that the lives of a thousand coloured chappies aren’t worth the death of one British soldier.” – Julie Burchill lashing into the incoherence and reactionaryism of the anti-war left. In the Guardian! The woman has guts.
THE CASE AGAINST THE SHUTTLE: A prescient and largely persuasive 1980 case against the Space Shuttle program. From the always-worth-reading Gregg Easterbrook.
THE NYT’S BEST: Just as a reminder of how good the paper can still be when it tries, here are two piece from Saturday’s paper that were smart, fair, engaging and nicely written: Brent Staples’ reflections on Condi Rice’s issues with affirmative action; and Ed Rothstein’s sharp view of Pepys as a precursor to blogging. Worth the buck alone.
BROOKS ON BLAIR: Poodle or bulldog? David Brooks cuts to the chase.
BRIGHT LIGHTS, BIG CITY: I’m writing this in Chicago, where I’m taking some quality time with the significant other. I’m still reeling. For well over a month I’ve been in near-seclusion, and for four months, I’ve been in a very little town. Since I got here, I’ve been almost giddy with social glee. Look, people! Starbucks! McDonalds! Gay bars with people I don’t know in them! I’m loving it – which is why the Dish is a little al dente this morning.
The Dish 