Dan Drezner makes a hopeful case for future Iraqi democratization in TNR Online. He looks at over-looked factors such as proximity to emerging demcocracies (Turkey) and the impact of defeat in war:
The area specialists aren’t necessarily wrong; democratizing Iraq won’t be easy. But the conditions aren’t nearly as barren as these experts suggest, and the potential upside is enormous. If a democratic transition were to succeed in Iraq, then Syria, suddenly surrounded by established democracies (Israel and Turkey) and emerging democracies (Iraq and Jordan), might start to feel nervous as well. Combine democratization in the Fertile Crescent with the continued liberalization of Morocco, Bahrain, and Qatar, and suddenly the neocon vision of a fourth wave of democratization spreading across the Middle East begins to look plausible.
I’m not sure I’m as hopeful. But the situation isn’t as hopeless as the State Department makes it out to be. (On that subject, Lawrence Kaplan’s devastation of Foggy Bottom in the current TNR is terrific as usual. But you’ve got to pay up for the piece.)
POSEUR ALERT: “It’s time to create a new vocabulary of dissent, one that makes a clear connection between war fever and thug power. There’s no more urgent task. The dawgs of war are about to be unleashed. Thousands will die, billions will be spent and most of us will have to do with less. These are the wages of following a leader who is strong but wrong. He’s the man; we’re his bitches.” – Richard Goldstein, in the Nation.
The Dish 