Interesting analysis from Charles Davis, former analyst of Soviet military and foreign policy for the Defense Intelligence Agency and National Intelligence Council (found via blogger Titusonenine). It was thinking about Castro that got him to re-evaluate Saddam:
My main reason for opposing war was that I believed that Saddam was deterred from using weapons of mass destruction as both the United States and Soviets were deterred during the Cold War. However, in reviewing the 1962 Cuba crisis, I found that when the United States was putting pressure on the Soviets to remove their missiles from Cuba in 1962, Castro was screaming at Moscow to launch a nuclear attack on the United States from Cuba — even though Castro knew that Cuba would have faced destruction from the U.S. response. This unnerved Khrushchev because he knew the conflict would then probably escalate to full-scale nuclear war. Khrushchev was perfectly willing to threaten to use nuclear weapons but was constrained from using them; Castro, however, would not have been so constrained had he had them.
Interesting to think of a Saddam constrained by the more rational Soviets. And chilling.
THE STOCK SURGE: Why? One view is from, natch, the New York Times: “Markets Rally as a U.N. Vote Is Delayed.” But Reuters, of all places, suggested another scenario: “Stocks Rally on Speculation of Short War.” Take your pick, I guess. But I suspect the latter. This waiting game can hardly be a tonic for investment. But a quick war could send the market soaring.
The Dish 