WHERE WE ARE

I wish I knew. I doubt anyone but the people running this war know for sure. And at some point, you have to trust them. But there’s some hope to be gleaned at least by what hasn’t happened. The oil fields seem secured and haven’t been set aflame. No chemical or biological weapons have yet been used. Iran is quiescent. The Turks have not invaded. Israel hasn’t been attacked. These are all good signs. So far, the worst hasn’t happened. But there are obvious worries as well. The Shi’a population in the South is still not sure of an allied victory. It seems we under-estimated their skittishness about an allied war – due in large part to their understandably bitter feelings at being betrayed in 1991. If we had more overwhelming force in the region, that may have been less of a problem. But it appears we don’t, for reasons of logistics and Turks but also of war planning. The fact that Saddamite forces are now firing into civilian areas in Basra is therefore a horrifying but also hopeful sign. And the Brits, it seems, are determined to try and support the civilians. As I write, they’re probably moving in. (Note to self: this is what a real ally looks like.)