GRIM NEWS FOR THE FMA

A new poll from ABC News is the first to measure Americans’ support for amending the Constitution to ban gay marriage. Instead of asking a single question that conflates whether you are for or against equal marriage rights and the amendment issue, the ABC poll asked two separate questions: 1) Do you think it should be legal or illegal for homosexual couples to get married? and 2) Is it worth amending the U.S. Constitution to make it illegal for homosexual couples to get married, or not worth it? The results are that 55 percent want to keep gay marriage illegal, but of those, a majority (60 percent) oppose a constitutional amendment. If you add up those who think gay marriage should be legal (and therefore presumably oppose the FMA) and those who think it should be illegal but still oppose the FMA, you get 70 percent opposition to the FMA. When you count out the “don’t knows”, you get a paltry 20 percent who want to amend the Constitution to ban gays from the responsibilities of marriage. 20 percent for a Constitutional Amendment. That means no amendment. Even if the numbers were reversed – and 70 percent were in favor of the FMA – that would still be a thin reed on which to make such a drastic change. Other interesting aspects of the poll: the generation gap is massive. And Republicans oppose the FMA by a 58 to 38 percent margin. (Independents and Democrats are pretty much indistinguishable on the issue, another interesting find.) There’s also little difference between civil unions and marriages, in most people’s eyes. The only way the religious right will succeed with this radical step is by a hysterical and polarizing campaign. Even then, the odds are surely against them.