What a hilarious period for punditry (and I include myself). I don’t know a soul who, only a couple weeks ago, predicted a four-way tie in Iowa. And yet the voters are making their minds up regardless of us media masturbators. What gall! What presumption! We talking heads already dismissed Edwards’ chances (even though, like many other conservatives, I’ve always liked him and his campaign). Mickey even had a contest for the best way for John Kerry to drop out a few weeks back – and now he’s the front-runner! Looking back, I think I made only one truly profound observation. The minute Al Gore endorsed Howard Dean, I instinctively opined that the Dean candidacy was finished. And, sure enough, as soon as Gore touched the Dean campaign, things began to go wrong. I should have trusted my instinct: Al Gore is always political death. Now all we need is to find out whom Johnny Apple thinks will win, and we’ll be all set. C’mon, Johnny. Put us out of our misery.
HOW BUSH COULD LOSE: I’m not sure what to make of the NYT poll yesterday. Obviously, I don’t trust NYT polls. But if this one is at all accurate, it’s grim news for Rove. The strategy of bankrupting the country to appease various interest groups hasn’t worked too well. Bush is still behind on prescription drugs for the elderly – despite a future cost of trillions directed to the wealthiest segment of the population. Despite booming growth and productivity rates, Bush still gets a net negative on the economy. It’s even stevens on Iraq. The president’s only real ace is national security – which, during the war on terror, is a big ace. (It’s certainly the sole reason I’m still giving the president the benefit of the doubt.) But here’s the thing: much of the national security advantage is retroactive. It refers to the admirable way in which Bush responded to 9/11. Looking forward, there’s a big opening for a Democrat who wants to say the following: “I want to do more to improve homeland security, put more emphasis on securing loose nukes in Russia and around the world, stay the course on Iraq – but also move to mend fences with old Europe and our other allies. Domestically, I’m going to improve our finances by raising taxes on the very rich, but cutting taxes on the middle class. And, above all, I’ll be a check on one-party government in the Congress, and prevent Bush from appointing extremists to the Supreme Court.” That’s a powerful message. My hunch is that the Democratic primary voters have begun to realize that they’ve sent their message of anger, but now realize they can win, if they find the right guy. For a cultural liberal, fiscal conservative like me, Bush’s only current advantage over a centrist Democrat is his conduct of the war on terror. What we’ll see in the next few weeks is if the Dems can see this. It’s grim news for Bush if they can.
THE IOWA MOMENT: My take on what the hell is going on.
The Dish 