THAT NYT POLL

Rich Meislin, the NYT’s editor for News Surveys and Election Analysis, defends himself:

I’m not sure where your seasoned Republican analyst is getting his numbers, but they seem to be incorrect.
The latest Gallup poll, taken Jan. 12-15, has this party ID breakdown:

Republicans 32
Democrats 34
Independents 33

The latest NYT/CBS News poll, taken Jan. 12-15, has this party ID breakdown:

Republicans 28
Democrats 32
Independents 31

They’re pretty similar. We also ask a followup question to the independents on whether they lean Democratic or Republican, which – in our polls and everyone else’s – moves around a great deal from poll to poll. By its nature, asking independents how they lean results in fluid answers depending on the circumstances. I’d also note that the Gallup poll released today shows Bush’s approval rating at 53 percent, which is statistically the same as the 50 percent we found in our poll during the same period.

Hmm. So the leaners skewed Dem. Hence the somewhat anti-Bush results.