I was mainlining C-SPAN yesterday. The John Kerry event was fascinating it was so awful. I must say I find his Shrum-populism sad and dumb at the same time – the pathetic demonization of drug companies, and the vapid citation of Enron and Worldcom in whatever context he feels like dumping on Bush, to name a couple of examples. The fact that he isn’t satisfied with the vast new Medicare entitlement is scary; that he wants essentially to undo solid testing standards in the No Child Left Behind Act is scarier; and that his first act as commander-in-chief would essentially be to return to the U.N. and tell them that America’s war on terror is now in their hands is terrifying. He even wants to lower the retirement age for Petessake. All of this is a major reality check for those with disappointments with this president (ahem). Kerry couldn’t even say a bad word about Malcolm X (and lapsed wonderfully into French during the post-stump chit-chat). He kept speaking of the American commitment in Iraq as entirely unilateral. He droned monotonously on, that stooped back and drooping face looming toward whichever poor schmuck he was condescending to at the moment. I know this much: he’s a shameless panderer to the paleos on the stump. I also know his voting record is all over the map, and that his policy zig-zaggery is a legend. He has, in other words, all the liberal baggage with none of the liberal fire. There’s a reason his campaign didn’t catch alight for a year! Maybe he’d provide a close race as the Newsweek poll suggests (but many readers have let me know they think that poll is dubious). But he doesn’t impress me at this point. In fact, he’s only where he is because of Dean scaring the Dems into panicked timidity. And surely there’s still time for them to realize he’s a cynical drone! C’mon, New Hampshire. Give us a shock.
A CROWD NOT A HERD: One note about the tracking polls in New Hampshire. Since January 16, two candidates have seen their support double: Kerry and Edwards. Ryan Lizza thinks Edwards may have the best of the late surges. Dean has sunk from 28 to 20 percent – but is back on the rise. Clark has sunk 5 points, and even Josh is a little rattled. In Arizona, Oklahoma and South Carolina, the tracking polls are currently showing three different victors: Kerry in Arizona, Edwards in South Carolina; and Clark in Oklahoma. Dean looks very weak after New Hampshire. I’d say that Dean has to come a good second in NH; Edwards has to win South Carolina; and Kerry just has to stay near the top to survive as the front-runner. That’s as brave as I’m gonna get right now. On polling, don’t forget to check in on John Ellis. He knows what he’s talking about.
MORE EDWARDS RAVES: “I’ve realized that it’s impossible not to believe Edwards is going to be the nominee while you’re actually watching an Edwards event. The certainty wears off a while later, of course. But while he’s got you in his crowd you’re under his spell. Tried. Tried again … No, doesn’t work. There’s some sort of hypnosis. At least in the moment, he’s that good.” – Josh Marshall. The press corps is in love again.
The Dish 