Month: January 2004

I’d like to thank Andrew for the wonderful opportunity to guest-post on the Daily Dish — and to Andrew’s readers for their civil and thoughtful feedback. For those of you who’ve been informed and entertained, feel free to check out my own blog at your leisure (posted by Daniel Drezner).

….AND A FINAL REQUEST: For those readers who are gainfully employed by the media (Howard Kurtz, I’m looking in your direction), please take a few minutes and fill out a five-question blog survey. It’s for two very good causes – a) research into how blogs influence politics, and b) me getting tenure (posted by Daniel Drezner).

Afghanistan’s loya jirga has agreed on a new democratic constitution. In Iraq, the transfer of power from coalition officials to the Iraqis themselves is formally underway.

Will these democratic transitions go off with out a hitch? Hell no — but that’s an unfair baseline. Both Iraq and Afghanistan have experienced waves of war, repression, civil strife and sanctions for two decades. As Victor Davis Hanson points out, what’s been achieved in the past two years is quite remarkable:

In 24 months the United States defeated two of the most hideous regimes in modern memory. For all the sorrow involved, it has already made progress in the unthinkable: bringing consensual government into the heart of Middle Eastern autocracy, where there has been no political heritage other than tyranny, theocracy, and dictatorship.

(posted by Daniel Drezner).

I may have to leave a memo to Andrew for his return proposing a new award for dumb Nazi analogies (dumb Hitler analogies would be eligible). 2003 ended with a great example, but let’s start the New Year with a clean slate.

If such an award existed, 2004’s inaugural winner would have to be Dr. Laura Schlessinger, as the New York Post explains:

A Holocaust Studies institute is asking radio talk-show host Dr. Laura Schlessinger to retract her on-air comments yesterday comparing some U.S. day-care centers to child-rearing practices in Nazi Germany.
The pop psychologist, whose syndicated show is broadcast on more than 200 stations, read a letter from a listener who criticized the lack of attention given to children in some American “child development centers” and other day-care facilities.

Schlessinger said, “It sounds like something out of Nazi Germany.”

UPDATE: Thanks to the many e-mails suggesting that the appropriate moniker would be the Godwin Award (posted by Daniel Drezner).

In his Tuesday column, Paul Krugman made the following aside:

[H]ow weak is the labor market? The measured unemployment rate of 5.9 percent isn’t that high by historical standards, but there’s something funny about that number. An unusually large number of people have given up looking for work, so they are no longer counted as unemployed, and many of those who say they have jobs seem to be only marginally employed. Such measures as the length of time it takes laid-off workers to get new jobs continue to indicate the worst job market in 20 years. (emphasis added)

Krugman’s assertion here is that the number of discouraged workers (“those who have given up looking for work”) plus the number of part-time workers who wish they were full-time (“only marginally employed”) are unusually high by historical standards.

What do the numbers actually say? Donald Luskin has the percentage of discouraged workers over the past decade. The figure was much higher a decade ago than it is now.

Then there’s the percentage of Americans who are part-time workers but would prefer full-time employment. Again, the figures over the past ten years (from the comments section in this Brad DeLong post (you can generate the numbers for yourself here — click on U-5 and U-6, and substract the former from the latter) show that the 2003 numbers are not unusual at all — again, the figure was higher a decade ago.

Krugman is either wrong or has a different definition of “unusual” than the rest of the English-speaking world.

Distortions like this one could explain parodies like this one.

UPDATE: In a quasi-response, Brad DeLong has a plethora of posts about the current state of unemployment — and unemployment statistics (posted by Daniel Drezner).

With a small ruler:

Physical education (PE) could be introduced into girls’ schools for the first time in Saudi history. The introduction could become reality since, in a vote of 75-29 two weeks ago, the Shoura Council approved the recommendation. If approved by the king, the recommendation would put an end to a ban of more than 40 years which has prevented girls from participating in any form of sports in public schools.

Dr. Hussein Al-Alawi, chairman of the education affairs and scientific research committee, who is also a member of the Shoura, told AFP yesterday that the recommendation had been sent to Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Fahd. The king has the final say. “Seventy-five of the Shoura Council’s 120 members voted in favor of a recommendation by a council member to introduce sports into girls’ schools,” he explained.

Dr. Al- Alawi, however, was one of the Shoura members who voted against the recommendation. In an interview last week with Al-Eqtisadiah, a sister publication of Arab News, he argued that introducing PE for girls would not solve the problem of female obesity which is on the rise in the Kingdom. He pointed out that studies had shown that obesity is a problem among boys as well so evidently “physical education did not lead to desired goals.”

I guess some liberalization is better than no liberalization. It’s also interesting to read that the Saudis also have a child obesity problem (posted by Daniel Drezner).

The good news — U.S. manufacturing activity grew at its fastest pace in the last two decades.

The better news — according to the Reuters story linked above, the employment situation in manufacturing is also improving:

ISM’s jobs component was 55.5, up from 51.0 in November. The employment index was above 50 for the second straight month after being lower 37 straight months — a trend that could have implications for the December payrolls report due on Jan. 9.

Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist with High Frequency Economists, said the current pace of factory expansion “cannot possibly be achieved with the existing manufacturing work force.”

(posted by Daniel Drezner)

India, Pakistan, and the other members of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation have agreed to create a South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA). Reuters has more on the story.

This is part and parcel of a recent shift in Pakistan’s approach to India — at no small risk to Pervez Musharraf.

A lot of deals like this are agreed upon but never implemented — particularly among developing nations. However, given the enduring rivalry between New Delhi and Islamabad, this still counts as good news.

And we should all look forward to hearing Dennis Kucinich find some way to condemn the trade pact (posted by Daniel Drezner).

Yesterday was the expiration date of the World Trade Organization’s “peace clause.” The clause provided immunity from the WTO’s punishments and procedures for agricultural subsidies. The Economist analyzes what this means for future trade talks. To understand the massive inefficiencies of these subsidies, consider this:

There are certainly a lot of subsidies to shoot at. The OECD, a club of rich nations, reckons that the agricultural subsidies of its members cost consumers and taxpayers about $230 billion in 2001 alone. The European Union, the United States and Japan were to blame for about 80% of those transfers. The typical milk producer in the OECD makes half its money from selling milk, and the other half from milking its government. Rice and sugar producers do the same.

(posted by Daniel Drezner).

An estimated 100,000 march in the streets demanding more democratic reforms. The Financial Times has more (posted by Daniel Drezner).