POLLS, POLLS

I’m not sure they’re worth much right now. All they’re measuring is short-term ups and downs. We won’t get a real sense of the race until the summer or early fall. But I’m struck by how the constitutional amendment endorsement has not had any measurable upward effect on Bush, as some might have predicted. Although he has an advantage on the general issue of marriage rights for gays, that advantage disappears when he changes the subject to amending the constitution because of it. I was struck by this finding in the Washington Post poll. To the question “Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling – The issue of same-sex marriage?” the respondents broke 52 percent disapproving and 44 percent approving. Now that could mean that some disapprove of his support for the amendment, or that some think he hasn’t been supportive enough of the amendment, or any number of permutations. But it does convey the sense that this issue isn’t an easy one for the president. It’s volatile. Bush’s positioning can seem cynical or extremist or weak. Bush’s gut instinct – which was to leave this issue alone – was and is the right one. We’ll see if he sticks with it in the months ahead. He’d be far better off campaigning on education and taxes and the war against terror. (By the way, the issue on which Bush gets the worst grade is … the deficit! The voters aren’t dumb.)