The cease-fire and apparent retreat of al Sadr’s little army are both pieces of good news from Iraq. We are trying to hand over power to a new government; but the effective components of that government have long been hard to identify. Such leaders need to be competent and respected, as many in the Governing Council are. But they also have to represent real power bases; have followings they can deliver; have constituencies who will respect and listen to them. One by-product of the current violence is that leaders will have to emerge to represent the various factions; and with imagination and leadership, a new government can be nailed down. I’m with Mickey in believing that earlier elections – even by the not-terribly-reliable basis of ration-cards – would be preferable to later elections. Mickey’s key point:
An early election would make it clear to all Iraqis that any disruptive violence was not designed to drive out the occupying infidels but rather to disrupt the election campaign and prevent Iraqis from determining their own fate. An early election would give voice and power to the so-called “silent majority” of pro-moderation Iraqis that polls show exists, before continued occupation erodes more of their moderation.
That may be too clever, but its direction seems to me to be the right one. We need above all Shiite leadership to navigate a way past al Sadr to power. Sistani now has many cards and it does not hurt the coalition to defer to him. In fact, deferring to such leaders while reinforcing civil order is exactly what our strategy must be. We mst not get trapped into insisting that we run Iraq. We must remember that our goal is to give Iraq back to the Iraqis. If that means lowering our standards – and I do not mean as low as al Sadr – then lower them.
BUSH’S RESPONSIBILITY: It’s worth saying here what we now know the president got wrong – badly wrong. There were never enough troops to occupy Iraq. The war-plan might have been brilliant, but the post-war plan has obviously been a failure. We needed more force and we needed more money sooner. The president has no excuses for not adjusting more quickly to this fact: he was told beforehand; he was told afterward; but he and the Defense Secretary were too pig-headed to change course. I still favor the war; but I cannot excuse the lapses and failures of the administration in the post-war. Yes, this was always going to be very very hard. And yes, Iraq was slowly imploding under Saddam and some version of what we are now witnessing was inevitable – and, without the war, it would have happened without our stabilizing presence. Yes, balancing keeping order and winning hearts and minds is not an easy operation to pull off. But with the troop levels we maintained – especially given the limited international support – we made things far harder than they might have been, and our beleaguered troops are dealing with the aftermath. We can still win this. We must still win this. But the president is in part responsible for making it even harder than it might have been.
THE KIND OF LEADER WE NEED: Check out this interview with Wale Al-Rukadi, vice-secretary general of the-Council of Iraqi Tribes. He’s a moderate Shiite who sees what he needs to do. We have to pray there are more like him.
ANTI-SEMITISM WATCH: David Bernstein notices an ugly, but typical, statement in Iraq.
WHY AFFIRMATIVE ACTION DOESN’T WORK: Anywhere in the world.
EMAIL OF THE DAY: With respect to the Lord’s Gym, a reader suggested something else:
Proposed design for Lord Gym’s restrooms:
LORD’s JOHN
Personal evacuation in a Christian setting. Pictures of John the Baptist micturating surround you, while gently suggestive Christian lyrics (“Where lie the waters gently flowing…” “With its crystal tide forever flowing…” “Lord, purge away my sin, from earthborn passions set me free and make me pure within…” “Roll away the stone, let it be, roll away the stone, and set me free…”) inspire you.
I hope I haven’t given them any ideas. More feedback you know where.
OFF TO MISSISSIPPI: I’m headed to the University of southern Mississippi today for a talk on the war. Then on to Palm Springs for the Log Cabin Republican Convention, where I’m giving a speech Friday lunchtime. Blogging will continue. Back Saturday.
The Dish 