ALLAWI DELIVERS

Yesterday’s announcement by the increasingly impressive interim prime minister of Iraq, Ayad Allawi, that most of the militias in Iraq have agreed to disband and be absorbed within the new Iraqi army is obviously good news. I’m not sure what to make of the fact that Sadr’s Mahdi Army and the Fallujah brigades are not part of the deal, but the momentum toward a new Iraq seems to be continuing. It is probably too much to hope for that the most recalcitrant parts of the insurgency should formally disarm at this point – but they are looking more isolated as a result. Allawi’s statements last week, together with his announcement today, are tentative signs that we may have a real leader in the making here. Here’s hoping.

WHY BUSH IS IN TROUBLE: Take a look at this analysis from Adam Clymer’s NAES outfit and Ruy Teixera’s take on it. Yes, Clymer is a Bush-hater – but the polling is sound, and shows how weak Bush is at this point in the race in the swing states. Swing voters are highly alienated by Iraq and the economy. Maybe they’ll change their tune. But time is running out.