GAYS RUIN JAPANESE MARRIAGE

Very soon, I suspect, Stanley Kurtz will publish a Very Important Piece, following his latest Very Significant Essay, establishing that allowing gays to marry has destroyed the institution of marriage in Japan. The evidence, after all, is overwhelming:

Japanese are postponing marriage or avoiding it altogether. Weddings dropped last year for the second straight year. Fifty-four percent of Japanese women in their late 20s are single, up from 30.6% in 1985. About half of single Japanese women ages 35 to 54 have no intention to marry, according to a survey in January by the Japan Institute of Life Insurance. In fact, Japan’s divorce rate rose steadily to 2.3 divorces for every 1,000 people in 2002 from 1.3 in 1990; it appears to have dropped a bit last year, partly because fewer people have been getting married. (The divorce rate in the USA was 4 per 1,000 people in 2002.)

You can, in fact, draw a direct connection between the liberalization of marriage laws in Liechtenstein and this collapse in marriage in Japan. And the turning point came at exactly the moment that Richard Hatch won “Survivor,” putting another nail in the coffin of heterosexual marriage. Secular humanist skeptics will no doubt quibble that there is no such thing as gay marriage in Japan, that Japan is, in fact, a deeply homophobic society. But can they prove no connection with Holland’s slide toward Gommorrah? Hasn’t greater Western tolerance of homosexuals seeped through in Japan? Didn’t the “Bird Cage” do pretty well over there? You have been warned. Unless you amend the American constitution, the Yellow-Lavender Peril will be here before you know it.

FLATULENT PUSBAG FOLLOW-UP: The ad I linked to yesterday was, in fact, a parody of MoveOn’s Bush-hating ad contest. You can read about it here. My bad.

ZEYAD ON THE NEW GOVERNMENT

A useful Iraqi view of the new government in Baghdad:

Yawar is known to have good relations with Kurds, is trusted by the Shia, is respected by other Arab nations, has a clean record, and belongs to a powerful wealthy well-known Iraqi family that leads the Shimmar tribal confederation, one of the largest tribes in Iraq, with both Sunni and Shi’ite clans, and spanning several neighbouring countries (such as Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey). That may be a unifying factor and one that Iraqis need badly at this moment of their history. After all the presidency is almost a symbolic title.
The cabinet is impressive. We now have 5 female ministers, which is an unprecedented step in the region. Just as Iraq was the first Arab country to have a female minister in 1958, it is now also the first Arab country to grant a larger role for women in the government. I expect a much larger percentage of women in the future National Assembly or parliament. The majority of ministers are independent politically, they are mostly technocrats, and come from all Iraqi social, ethnic, religious, and sectarian backgrounds. Many old players are absent such as Chalabi’s INC. Also another interesting observation is that four of the ministers are also tribal figures.
So, perhaps I’m a bit optimistic today? Maybe. But Iraqis need to be optimistic at such a critical moment. There is no use in shrugging your shoulders and saying “I don’t care..” anymore. You will be left behind along with the dark forces that insist on killing more Iraqis and disrupting the new changes. I’m confident that the Arab world is now watching Iraq with eyes wide open (or wide shut).

He has some reservations as well.

TENET GONE

For “personal reasons.” Like he personally presided over two of the biggest CIA failures in modern history. Thank God Bush never actually fired him. That would mean taking responsibility, wouldn’t it?

BUSH: “I never apologized to the Arab world.” That was his message to the editors of Christianity Today about the Abu Ghraib abuses. It speaks volumes about Bush’s sense of personal responsibility. He is a walking example of the following culture: “If it feels good, do it, and if you’ve got a problem, blame somebody else.” But he just can’t or won’t see it.

CONSERVATIVE DEFECTIONS

The fascinating thing about the slide in Bush’s support in the polls is that much of it has come from Republicans defecting. Ryan Lizza, citing Stan Greenberg, points out that the biggest slippage is among rural voters:

These rural voters, referred to as “Country Folk,” represent 21 percent of the electorate. In 2000, 63 percent of Country Folk backed Bush. Yet today, only 58 percent support him and only 51 percent want to continue in Bush’s direction; 47 percent want to go in a “significantly different direction.”
An overall drop of 5 points in the Republican presidential vote among these voters may not seem like a major shift, but in a country at parity it could provide the margin of victory. This impact is amplified by where the Country Folk live: they are concentrated in the battleground states, like Iowa, Missouri, Louisiana, New Hampshire and Minnesota.

But why are these Bush-base voters defecting? Bruce Bartlett has some plausible theories. My own hunch is that these voters do not like a massive increase in government spending, a huge jump in public debt, and a post-war policy in Iraq that seemed blindsided by reality. But here’s my other belief, and it’s about Abu Ghraib. The images from that prison shamed America in deep and inchoate ways. Traditional conservative patriots in particular were appalled. The awful truth is that this president presided over one of the most damaging blows to American prestige and self-understanding in recent history. He may not have been directly responsible; but it was on his watch. And he ensured that no one high up in his administration took the fall for the horror. I think traditional patriots were saddened, shocked and horrified by the abuse and, to a lesser extent, the Bush administration’s self-protective response to it. For me, at least, even though I am fully committed to the war, the images from Abu Ghraib are indelibly part of my memories of the Bush administration. I can move on in my head; but my conscience will be forever troubled.

CHRISTIANS AND ABU GHRAIB: Christianity Today laments how few leading Christian groups publicly protested the abuses at Abu Ghraib. Money quote: “It would seem that American soldiers, Graner included, at Abu Ghraib failed on at least two accounts – working counter to the purpose of peace, and if some reports are true, failing to disobey orders that no Christian could in good conscience follow.” That much is an understatement. But I didn’t hold my breath for the leaders of the religious right to make a fuss because, well, they’re the leaders of the religious right. When you’re primarily devoted to the pursuit of worldly power, it is hard to criticize its abuses.

A CANADIAN WATERSHED? The best analysis I’ve yet read of the big political shift in Canada is on Collin May’s excellent blog, Innocents Abroad. Check it out.

THE COMMUNION WARS

An insightful homily from an extremely good new theo-blog.

NADER ANNOUNCES …: …for the presidency of Iraq. Sunnis and Shiites denounce “spoiler.”

RAINES AND MOORE: Left Coast blogger Lee finds some uncanny similarities between Howell Raines’ worldview and Michael Moore’s. Of course they see the world the same way: America as a con-job on the permanent poor. Western Front blogger, however sees nothing that different in Raines’ worldview:

While Raines’ partisanship is blinkered, it is also entirely unremarkable. If you take Raines’ mien as something singular or asymmetric, I would submit, respectfully, that you are missing something about contemporary liberalism in places like Manhattan or Seattle or Amherst.
I am a conservative (of some kind) and I work daily for people who could have said everything in Raines’ column today – and much worse… I can tell you without any hesitation that outing myself even as a nominal conservative would be professional suicide in my milieu. So my choices are
1) keep your mouth shut and adopt a de facto “Don’t ask, don’t tell” policy when you are in professional company, or
2) abandon any reasonable hope of finding either regular work (as a freelancer) or advancement (in a full-time job).

Of course, it’s not a lot better being a conservative and favoring, say, gay civil rights. Try getting a job at a conservative institution with those views. But most conservatives don’t control institutions like universities, publishing houses, major general interest magazines, or Hollywood. They police their own openly partisan institutions – not others’ or the public realm. As another reader wrote me: “I can in fact imagine being a conservative employee of someone who could write a column similar to Raines’. It’s called being an employee in the political science department of a state university.” I’m afraid she’s right.

WHAT RAINES BELIEVES

Fascinating little column by Howell Raines. Reading it is a very useful insight into how he turned the New York Times into a crusading left-populist pamphlet. Take Iraq. Of course Raines opposed the war. The notion that he might have supported it under any circumstance while Republicans were in power is ludicrous. No doubt he takes the New York Review line that we should get out now. But then he’s criticizing the Bush administration for a “cut-and-run” strategy:

White House strategists are betting that leaving Iraq in 30 days – no matter what chaos ensues in that country – will leave them time to revise history between now and election day and, more importantly, get on with the work of destroying Kerry’s image.

Let’s look at that quote again: “… leaving Iraq in 30 days …” The question is: does Raines believe this? If he does, he believes keeping up to 140,000 troops in a foreign country is the same as “leaving” it. Now imagine that the Bush administration decided not to transfer sovereignty and remain in control of Iraq for another year. Do you think Raines would support them? The truth is: Raines would oppose any policy in Iraq as long as it was pursued by the Bush administration. And that was indeed the rule during his editorship: the Bush administration was wrong and evil, whatever it did. Now get a load of Raines’ loathing of the American market economy as a whole:

As Al From of the Democratic Leadership Council noted, Americans aren’t antagonistic toward the rules that protect the rich because they think that in the great crap-shoot of economic life in America, they might wind up rich themselves. It’s a mass delusion, of course, but one that has worked ever since Ronald Reagan got Republicans to start flaunting their wealth instead of apologising for it. Kerry has to understand that when a cure is impossible, the doctor must enter the world of the deluded.
What does this mean in terms of campaign message? It means that he must appeal to the same emotions that attract voters to Republicans – ie greed and the desire to fix the crap-shoot in their favour.

The only reason people vote Republican is greed and a desire to screw other people over? Has this guy got through his sophomore year yet? And the notion that people can actually make it big in this country is “a mass delusion, of course.” I love that: “of course.” All Guardian readers, from that wonderfully socially mobile country, Britain, know that only socialism allows people to better themselves, as long as that socialism is managed by enlightened souls like Raines. Then we have this:

As matters now stand, Kerry has assured the DLC, “I am not a redistributionist Democrat.” That’s actually a good start. Using that promise as disinformation, he must now figure out a creative way to become a redistributionist Democrat.

So the aim is to deceive voters about what you want to do. This might be amusing coming from a Dick Morris or a Karl Rove. But didn’t Raines spend a year and a half lacerating the Bush administration for, er, lying? And now he thinks it’s an essential tool for governance? Not all Bush-haters are as dumb or as crude as Raines. But it’s useful to see how decadent the left-liberal mind can be in one of its more prominent exemplars. The American people are stupid, craven greed-hounds; lying is good if you can get away with it; American capitalism is a rotten, hollow promise; and even the Democrats refuse to take the advice of the few enlightened people who can help them, like Howell Raines. Well, that makes one thing to be grateful about.

ONE OTHER POINT: Can you imagine being a conservative of any kind and having to work for someone who could write a column like that one? Raines’ sheer contempt for opposing views is gob-smacking. And can you imagine anyone writing a column like that deciding to edit the New York Times as objectively as possible? They key to Raines is the method he endorses in this column: “disinformation.” That was his modus operandi for a year and a half: to hijack a newspaper and turn it into a means of disinformation. His only regret is that he didn’t get away with it for much longer.

BUSH’S ECONOMIC RECORD

Josh Marshall and Noam Scheiber both lay into David Brooks over Bush’s economic record. Josh’s point is that the big Bush tax cut that probably did avert a full-scale depression in 2001 – 2002 should not be counted in the president’s favor. Why? Because Bush didn’t intend the cut to boost demand during a threat of worldwide deflation, and had crafted it years before, anticipating a surplus. Josh is surely factually right about intentions; but intentions aren’t everything in politics. Whatever Bush’s intentions, the effect of the tax cut was obviously the right thing at the right time, and may have prevented a global economic disaster. But of course, the conditions for the demand-boost have now abated, and the economy is growing again. Now is the time for serious spending cuts to match the tax relief – at least that would be my preference. Josh would surely be better off criticizing the Bush administration for its prospective fiscal policy rather than its past economic success.

CHENEY’S HAD ENOUGH: He finally walks out on the president:

According to the vice-president, the Cheney Administration would be much more streamlined and efficient than Bush’s administration has been. “Let me tell you this: It’d be a lot easier just to give a speech myself and do it right, rather than spending six hours trying to explain everything to the president-only to have him botch it anyway,” Cheney said. “That ‘I don’t know what you’re saying and I don’t care’ look in his eyes when I start talking policy drives me absolutely bonkers. And he wonders why the reporters are so hard on him.”

When he’s losing the veep, things have got to be bad. Of course, this was the Onion.

THE VIRGINIA LAW: I missed an enlightening exchange of views about the anti-gay Virginia statute that, on its face, appears to ban any private contractual arrangements between two people of the same gender. Here’s Ramesh Ponnuru’s defense of the law; here’s Wally Olsen’s response. Ponnuru’s defense of the law would be more persuasive if the law hadn’t passed the Virginia legislature after a virulently anti-gay debate. Ramesh’s friends on the social right in Virginia are not interested in nuance here. They are interested in doing whatever they can to stigmatize, marginalize and criminalize gay relationships for religious reasons. That’s the sad reality.

EMAILS OF THE DAY: Two diverging views on my post yesterday:

“If someone had said in February 2003 that in June 2004 there would be: 140,000 American troops in Iraq, just a smattering of foreign troops, heavy fighting leading to significant monthly causalties, debate over increasing the number of troops instead of decreasing them, thousands of troops diverted from Korea due to a troop shortage in Iraq, a lack of Arabic speaking and appropriately trained special forces in Afghanistan due to their necessity in Iraq, a significant presence of foreign fighters and terrorists, an increased capacity for terrorists worldwide to recruit new fighters due to increased worldwide hatred of America, a huge prisoner abuse scandal threatening the already troubled American image overseas and specifically in Iraq and the jobs of the Secretary of Defense and other top military leaders, no WMD’s, no progress in the Israeli-Palestenian conflict, no progress in relations with the rest of the axis of evil, oil prices over $42 a barrel, over $120 billion spent on the war, over 800 soldiers dead, over a hundred American civilians killed in Iraq, over 4000 casualties … well, I think you would come to the conclusion that the war had been an extraordinary … failure. And you’d be right. Yes, there have been enormous successes; and yes, so much less could have been achieved without vast steadfastness and the bravery of our soldiers and many Iraqis. But it’s worth acknowledging that, with a little perspective, our current back-patting is over-blown.”

Funny, I haven’t seen much back-patting. Here’s another:

You asked “If someone had said in February 2003, that by June 2004…”
Good question, but you forgot to add that, in addition to that amazing list of accomplishments, Libya essentially sued for peace with the US and Britain days before the invasion of Iraq and then completely capitulated to our demands a few days after Saddam was yanked out of that rat hole. Their capitulation consisted of surrendering their extensive WMD programs and revealing details of a frighteningly advanced clandestine nuclear program run out of Pakistan (one that is now shut down).
Changing the behavior of the other state sponsors of terror was always one of the most important reasons to topple the murderous tyrant in Iraq. Had we not invaded Iraq, we’d be blissfully unaware that nuclear weapons were secretly spreading to states like Libya that sponsor radical Islamic terror. But that frightening problem was revealed before it was too late, and the problem has been effectively addressed (which was the whole idea). Nuanced diplomacy, by itself, never would have achieved this.
Opponents of the war keep asking for an explanation of Bush’s strategy and complaining that he doesn’t have one. As they watch freedom unfold in Iraq and former state sponsors of terror throw in the towel, those opposed to the liberation of Iraq may wish to consider the possibility that it is they, themselves, who have a strategy problem. They don’t have one (unless speaking in broad, feel-good generalities is a strategy that will defeat al Qaeda), and they can’t see one when it is staring them in the face. Either that, or they just refuse to see it.

More feedback can be found on the Letters Page.

BLOGS IN BRITAIN: An essay asks why they haven’t taken off as they have in the U.S.