I found plenty to worry about in this Newsweek piece from Iraq, not least quotes from senior U.S. diplomats in the country, saying “We thought that there would be a reprieve after sovereignty, but all hell is breaking loose.” But this was new to me:
The Defense Department counted 87 attacks per day on U.S. forces in August – the worst monthly average since Bush’s flight-suited visit to the USS Abraham Lincoln in May 2003. Preliminary analysis of the July and August numbers also suggests that U.S. troops are being attacked across a wider area of Iraq than ever before. And the number of gunshot casualties apparently took a huge jump in August. Until then, explosive devices and shrapnel were the primary cause of combat injuries, typical of a “phase two” insurgency, where sudden ambushes are the rule. (Phase one is the recruitment phase, with most actions confined to sabotage. That’s how things started in Iraq.) Bullet wounds would mean the insurgents are standing and fighting-a step up to phase three.
Look, I’d love to believe the good news – and some of it, thanks to our amazing soldiers, is good. But the broader reality is that we are losing this critical war right now. David Brooks has a sensible piece today defending the administration’s sensitive/gradualist approach to the insurgency. My worry is a deeper one: what if neither the hard-ass clean-Falluja strategy nor the softly-softly approach can work? What if one only goads further recruits for the insurgency and the other does the same in different fashion? Besides, the odds on a credible national election in January cannot be good right now. And if we pragmatically allow some parts of Iraq to gain democracy before others, won’t we be in danger of splitting the country apart? My fear is that we had a clear but narrow window of opportunity to bring about a real sovereign transition for twelve months or so after the fall of Baghdad. We missed it. All our current options are wrenching and bad ones. Doesn’t that count as an important part of Bush’s legacy?
FRANCE VS THE EU: A key French political figure comes out against the new EU Constitution. It’s doomed anyway, I’d say. Yay!
RATHER EMBARRASSING: It’s getting worse for CBS. Their forensics expert didn’t authenticate the Killian memos after all. The question now is not whether Dan Rather should go (of course he should). It’s how embarrassing it’s going to get while he clings on.
The Dish 