The re-taking of Samarra by American and Iraqi forces is not the end of the story in the restless Sunni town, but it’s reason enough for celebration. It must surely help relieve the Allawi government, and make the task ahead in Fallujah and the rest of the Sunni Triangle seem more manageable. The question now, of course, is how the insurgents will regroup and challenge the new authorities in the city, and whether the Iraqi army is capable of holding the town by itself. That’s the real test – and we won’t know for a while. Meanwhile, even the Weekly Standard realizes it has to have a response to the worsening situation in Iraq. Reuel Marc Gerecht provides a sobering – and damning – assessment of the botched occupation so far, and argues that our current softly-softly Iraqification policy is insufficiently aggressive to prevent the country from veering off course. He wants the Samarra success to be a prelude to far more aggressive attempts to wrest back control of Sunni cities. There’s just one problem:
The odds of a massive November surprise offensive, after the U.S. elections, aren’t high given how thinly spread American combat forces are across the country. Also, Secretary Rumsfeld’s remark about partial elections may indicate that the secretary, who has consistently looked askance at deploying more troops, has little intention of adopting counterinsurgency tactics requiring a lot more manpower (for example, simultaneous or even sequential house-to-house offensives in Falluja, Ramadi, Baquba, Mosul, or the worst sections of Baghdad). The president could order thousands of Marines from East Asia and the United States to Iraq fairly quickly. But such an offensive in November or December would be essentially an all-American affair: Even the most expedited deployment of Iraq’s new, American-made army would likely be too late for an all-out assault in 2004.
Rummy, again: “Just Enough Troops To Lose.” I wonder if president Bush will rethink the current strategy before November, if he thinks it might make him lose at home as well. Maybe Samarra is a test-case. Here’s hoping.
CRAWFORD AND LOWELL: So the president’s home-town paper endorsed Kerry. Look what the Lowell Sun in Massachusetts has just done. Money quote:
John Kerry … has all the attributes of the shape of water when it comes to telling us what he believes and what he’d do for America. Like incoming and outgoing tides, Kerry is content to go with the flow. In a dangerous world infested with sharks, Kerry would be chum at America’s expense. We in Massachusetts know John Kerry. He got his first taste of politics 32 years ago in the cities and towns of Greater Lowell. In his 20 years in the U.S. Senate, Kerry, a Navy war hero, hasn’t risen above the rank of seaman for his uninspiring legislative record.
A great and ornery country, or what?
The Dish 