A DRAW

That’s my basic take, although the debate was more interesting than that makes it seem. On style, the president was clearly far better than in the first debate. I think he’s woken up and realizes he can lose this thing. He was aggressive, clear most of the time, had a good rapport with the audience and, as the debate went on, became more relaxed. There were moments early on, however, when he seemed to me to be close to shouting; and his hyper-aggressiveness, having to respond to everything, went at times over the line of persuasiveness. Early cut-away shots weren’t helpful either. He tended to look up at Kerry blinking fast, twitching a little, and occasionally smirking and even winking to friends in the audience. Not presidential. He was strongest on stem cell research, where most of his work was done by the questioner. But his clear formulation – “to destroy life in order to save life is one of the most difficult moral concundrums we face today” – was eloquent and correct. I’m with him on this one. I also found his response to the abortion question better than Kerry’s. How you can respect human life and be in favor of partial birth abortion is simply beyind me. Bush is also clearly right that the war on terror cannot be restrained merely to police work against al Qaeda. On all these things, his performance was immeasurably better than last week.

BUSH’S BLATHER: But he was also evidently flailing at times. Throwing around the old “liberal” label was hackneyed and seemed a substitute for argument. His distortion of Kerry’s healthcare plan didn’t flirt with being mendacious; it was an outright lie. His answer on the environment sounded okay but isn’t going to convince anyone. That he has to concede the complete absence of WMDs in Iraq is inevitably brutal on him and his argument about the war. The facts are simply against him, and it shows. He had absolutely no answer on his spending spree. None. If you’re a one-issue voter on fiscal responsiblity, Kerry is obviously your man; and this debate rammed that point home. And then there were some simply bizarre moments. Does anyone in America ever use the term “internets”? Plural? I’ve never heard anyone in my life use this formulation. The mandatory malapropism: Bush promised at one point that he’d be more “facile” in future. That’s going to be a hard promise to keep. After four years of defending the homeland, the president should also not be giving soundbites like “I’m worried. I’m worried about our country.” Hey, Mr president. Join the gang. And then ythere was the hilarious answer on the judicial appointments. Bush won’t appoint anyone who still believes in the Dredd Scott decision. That’s a relief. But, to be honest, it’s the kind of question a high-school president might give, not the president of the United States. Bush’s biggest failure was to detail Kerry’s record, rather than just describing it as “liberal”. “Show, not tell” is a good rule of thumb for effective criticism. And then there was the inevitable “mistakes” question. Bush didn’t answer it – except to say he wish he hadn’t hired Paul O’Neill. You’d think by now he’d have some kind of answer. But he seems to think he is incapable of error. That, in fact, is an obvious part of the problem.

KERRY THE DEMAGOGUE: Kerry was as strong and as presidential as he was in the first debate, and effective, I think, in countering the flip-flop charge. His strongest debate points were citing Republicans to criticize the president’s war management, giving far more concrete proposals on healthcare than the president, burnishing his fiscal conservatism, and demagoguing the reimportation of prescription drugs. Yes, it was horrible pandering on the latter but it did the job and Bush didn’t counter him. It’s so depressing that neither candidate gave the honest answer to the reimportation problem: it will decimate the pharmaceutical companies’ profits and wreck long-term research and development. But one thing you can tell from this debate: no one promised any new limits on government. Bush has killed that brand of conservatism dead. Kerry’s big new weakness is that he really does seem to have reverted to the notion that Saddam should have been left in power. The Duelfer report definitely gives him ammunition on this, but the president is right to argue that such a position makes it difficult for Kerry to have credibility with our current allies in fighting the current war. The line Kerry is trying to walk between appealing to his anti-war base while reassuring pro-war independents got a little shakier tonight.

AN EDGE TO KERRY: Stylistically, Kerry seemed, well, calmer. When the camera cut to him during Bush’s walkarounds, he was generally serene and respectful. His parries were cleaner than Bush’s; his mind seemed more complicated – but not to the point of complete paralysis. Far from it. The contrast between a man who can make an argument and one who can simply assert what he believes to be a truth was striking. If we have learned anything these past three years, it is that conviction is not enough. Skepticism, openness to other arguments, thinking outside the box or against a bubble mentality: all these are useful in a war leader and Bush has none of them. In some ways, Kerry seemed more experienced than Bush, which, of course, he is. All in all, I’d say that Kerry had a minuscule edge in both the substantive and stylistic contest. But the fact that Bush seemed alive and kicking as a candidate will help him regain some initiative as well.