Back in the early spring, I bet Michael Barone that Kerry would win this election. I’ll buy him a drink if I’m wrong. And to be honest, I don’t know who’s more likely to win at this point. But here’s a prediction I don’t mind making. This election won’t be close. Presidents seeking re-election very rarely win or lose a second time narrowly. Either they get trounced – Carter, Bush 41 – or they get re-elected handily – Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton. People make a simple decision whether the guy’s worth re-electing. Of course, the alternative makes a difference. My view is that most people don’t want to re-elect Bush but are still unconvinced by Kerry. But they’ll figure it out soon enough. Hence the big interest in the debates – and the huge swing since the first one. Joel Rosenberg of National Review looks at the Zogby data and worries:
There is some good news for the president. Zogby says “Kerry’s edge on the economy is gone. Among those who cite the economy as the top issue, the candidates are in a dead heat – Bush holding a slight edge,” (46 percent to 44 percent). And this: Bush “also leads among those who cite the War on Terror as the top issue” (68 percent to 26 percent).”
But by far the most interesting – and disturbing – finding in his poll is that “among undecided voters, only 15% feel the President deserves to be re-elected, while 39% say it is time for someone new.”
What if the undecideds break 2-to-1 against the president less than 30 days from now? We could be looking at a Kerry landslide.
Yep. In fact, I’d say a clear and decisive Kerry win is now the likeliest outcome of this election. Bush’s only hope is to tear Kerry apart. He can’t defend his record. Every day, the news undermines it. He is losing this campaign in the final stretch. So he needs to attack. And when a Rove candidate needs to attack to survive, it’s going to get ugly. Real, real ugly.
CHECK IN TONIGHT: I’ll be blogging after the debate as usual.
The Dish 