NICE BUSH

Of all the debates, this seemed to me to be the hardest to call. On substance, I give Kerry a clear advantage. There were some issues in which he simply out-debated the president, answered more questions and had a better case. But on manner and style, Bush came in extremely strongly in the last half-hour, emerging finally as the funny, humane figure that many of us came to admire in the last election cycle. Over all, Kerry cemented his new image as calmer and, oddly enough, more presidential than Bush. But Bush critically regained his likability, his rapport with people, and his moderate voice. What all this means I’m not sure. Kerry seemed marginally more likable than before, thanks, in part, to the president – but he’s still a stiff; and we may be tiring of him a little already. Bush, however, came off as a good guy, but he didn’t really advance on his fundamental weak spot: competence and a vision for the next four years. He never gave us a reason to re-elect him, except more of the same. Kerry, while emerging as a less appealing character for the first time, offered plan after plan. The whole debate advanced a narrative: that you don’t have to hate Bush to vote for change. Who watched? Not sure. Will it make a big difference? Short term, I think it may arrest the Kerry surge and give Bush a small fillip. Long term, it may help swing undecideds toward the challenger. Stay tuned for a detailed account of the debate and a defense of this instant judgment. Back in a few …