Month: October 2004

Bummer. I’d hoped he was buried under rubble. What to make of the rant? The parroting of idiotic Michael Moore points was a little pathetic for an alleged spiritual mastermind. And the re-calibration of the rationale for 9/11 – again retroactively talking of Palestinians – was the usual vile opportunism. But why release a tape just before the elections? The obvious impact will be to help Bush. Any reminder of the 9/11 attacks will provoke a national rallying to the commander-in-chief. The deep emotional bond so many of us formed with the president back then is Bush’s strongest weapon in this election, and OBL has just revived it. The real October Surprise turned out not to be OBL’s capture (sorry, Teresa!) but OBL’s resilience. I have a feeling that this will tip the election decisively toward the incumbent. A few hours ago, I thought Kerry was headed for victory. Now I think the opposite. I also have a sinking feeling that that was entirely bin Laden’s objective.

ARABS FOR BUSH: Some surprising supporters for the president amng Arab regimes. Money quote:

The Iraq quagmire may also explain why Hasan Rowhani and some other Iranian officials (though not, by any means, all of them) would like Bush to have a second term. So long as the US is bogged down in Iraq, it cannot seriously contemplate toppling the regime in Iran – or, for that matter, in Syria. Prospects for the US remaining bogged down look rather better under Bush than Kerry.

Not exactly on Karl Rove’s message, but good enough.

ELLIS ON BUSH: Yes, he’s biased. He’s Bush’s cousin! But he’s also smart, sane and a friend. Here’s John Ellis’ take on the election:

Someone asked me the other day why I supported President Bush, “aside from the family thing” as he put it. I said I was supporting him because I thought he understood The Issue at stake better than anyone alive. And because he cared about that issue completely. And that he was on the right side of that issue from day one and every day thereafter. And that he was devoted to committing this nation to a course of offensive engagement with the terror apparatus that might, just might, save us all here in the United States. The issue, of course, is the fight against Al Qaeda, its associates, enablers and like-mindeds.
The President Bush I read about in the papers and the newsweeklies and the blogs bears almost no resemblance to the President Bush I know and visit with from time to time. (I’ve never seen media as blatantly dishonest and biased as we have all seen this year.) The man I know is smart, extraordinarily disciplined, enormously hard-working, open to new ideas and approaches, decisive, shrewd and gifted with a keen sense of the possible. He is decent and honest and true, which cannot be said of many of his critics.
Has he made mistakes? Yes he has. Do they warrant his retirement? I don’t think so. Because over-riding everything is the issue and on this issue President Bush has been steadfast and strong and right as rain, while his opponent has rambled and waffled and weaseled every which way.
Our enemies will brace for four more years of hell if Bush is re-elected. They will celebrate if Senator Kerry wins.
Here’s to four more years of hell.

That last sentence might have been better formulated. But, look, this is not an easy call. As I’ve said before, it’s a choice between incompetence and irresolution. The question we have to ask is: can we afford four more years like the last one, when our enemies foiled us in Iraq, when our intelligence fell apart, when our moral standing was undermined, and when our president seemed unable even to recognize difficulties, let alone fix them? Kerry is a gamble we cannot know in advance. Bush is a gamble whose recent performance is execrable. I begrudge no one an honest decision, and I won’t be heartbroken by either result. (I just pray for a clear result, that’s all.) But those are the terms.

A thoughtful, thorough and cogent argument from Megan McCardle. I wish more pro-Bush endorsements were like this one. Instead of the usual “Vote for Bush or You’re a Pussy” crap we get so much.

A closet centrist? Steve Waldman thinks so.

In Georgia, the head of the Christian Coalition is Sadie Fields, the major proponent of a state amendment that would deny gay couples any legal protections for their relationships. No big surprise that her daughter is gay, like so many offspring of the religious right. Until now, the daughter has kept silent. Until now. Money quote:

I was 24 years old when my mother, through a series of mishaps, found out I was gay. My mother came over to where I worked, screaming, and told me I was “dead” to the family. She called me “sick,” “crazy” and “of the devil.” She said that I would never see my family again.
For more than five years after that day, I heard nothing from my family. No birthday cards, no invitations to Christmas or Thanksgiving events. It wasn’t just the loss of my immediate family that was difficult, but the loss of my extended family as well. Since my mother refused to be in the same room with me, it forced my aunts and uncles to choose sides. I have not been to a family reunion in more than a decade.

There you have the anti-family agenda of the religious right. By next week, they will have passed bans on any protections for gay couples in eight states.

Another report on the widespread failure to secure munitions sites in Iraq:

Six months after the fall of Baghdad, a vast Iraqi weapons depot with tens of thousands of artillery rounds and other explosives remained unguarded, according to two U.S. aid workers who say they reported looting of the site to U.S. military officials.
The aid workers say they informed Lt. Gen. Ricardo S. Sanchez, the highest ranking Army officer in Iraq in October 2003 but were told that the United States did not have enough troops to seal off the facility, which included more than 60 bunkers packed with munitions.
“We were outraged,” said Wes Hare, city manager of La Grande, who was working in Iraq as part of a rebuilding program. A colleague who also visited the depot, Jerry Kuhaida, said it appeared that the explosives at the Ukhaider Ammunition Storage Area had found their way to insurgents targeting U.S. forces.
“There’s no question in my mind that the stuff in Ukhaider was used by terrorists,” said Kuhaida.

This context is important. Al QaQaa is the tip of the ammo scandal. But if you didn’t believe there would be an insurgency, why would you guard these dumps? There weren’t enough troops to maintain order, let alone secure hundreds of sites. You can see the logic for the administration’s position. But after six months?

I’ve long thought this was a ridiculous story. But check out these images. Some kind of bullet-proof vest or security device?

A useful map of al QaQaa, for those who still think there’s anything to clear up.

FLIP-FLOPS: Another Bush catalog. Kinda cute. (Keep clicking on the shoes).

NO FLU SHOT FOR ME: Even though I’ve got the Deadly AIDS Virus, I’m apparently way too healthy to get a flu shot. And my doc has run out. I’m blaming trial lawyers. And the Brits. And the troops. And the U.N. And the French. And Kerry. And the beagle. Do I sound like I’m looking for a gig on NRO?

The latest Zogby shows a big lead in Miami-Dade. The Miami Herald’s Jim Defede concludes:

According to the Herald poll, done by Zogby International, Kerry is positioned to win Miami-Dade by anywhere from 90,000 to 100,000 votes. A margin that large in Florida’s most populous county would be hard for Bush to make up across the rest of the state.
Now I realize if the poll’s margin of error were to fall in the president’s favor, Kerry would beat Bush, 53 to 46 percent (instead of 56-43). But even then, because of new voters, Kerry would still walk away with 50,000 more votes than Bush. But here is why the Herald poll rings true. Between 2000 and 2004, the split between Democrats and Republican is virtually the same in almost every category… The one group that is radically different — and it is why the poll makes sense — is a shift among non-Cuban Hispanics, who are backing Kerry almost two-to-one.

If Kerry wins Florida, Bush is really up against it.

The KSTP video seems to have the smoking munitions. Munitions found in April have the IAEA seal about as solid a proof possible that they had not been removed before the war. On Aaron Brown last night, David Kay confirmed it, calling it “Game, set and match”. Money quote from ABC:

Experts who have studied the images say the barrels on the tape contain the high explosive HMX, and the universal markings on the barrels are clear that these are highly dangerous explosives. “I talked to a former inspector who’s a colleague of mine, and he confirmed that, indeed, these pictures look just like what he remembers seeing inside those bunkers,” said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington.
The barrels were found inside sealed bunkers, which American soldiers are seen on the videotape cutting through. Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency sealed the bunkers where the explosives were kept just before the war began.
“The seal’s critical,” Albright said. “The fact that there’s a photo of what looks like an IAEA seal means that what’s behind those doors is HMX. They only sealed bunkers that had HMX in them.”
After the bunkers were opened, the 101st was not ordered to secure the facility. A senior officer told ABC News the division would not have had nearly enough soldiers to do so.

(My italics). What we’re seeing is the slow exposure of the reality of the Iraq war. No: not the incompetence of the soldiers. The incompetence of the president. He’s responsible. And this time, he cannot duck it.

THE OTHER SIDE: Here’s the alternative take on why this issue may not be completely resolved. I have to say it seems desperate and unconvincing to me. But make your own mind up.

Here is General Tommy Franks last night: “Now, I’ll tell you, I don’t know Senator Kerry’s plan for victory. I don’t know what it is. I don’t know what it is, but I do know — but I do know that his criticism of military conduct of our global war on terrorism denigrates, disrespects our troops.” Where has Kerry criticized the troops? Nowhere. Is Franks saying that any criticism of military policy is now out of bounds? Is he saying it is illegitimate to criticize his war-plan because it has failed so patently to do what it was supposed to do – prevent Saddam’s weaponry from getting into the hands of terrorists? Slowly, the bar for dissent is ratcheted up, isn’t it? I’m sad that we bungled this important liberation so badly. But I’m angry at the administration’s response: they reflexively accuse critics of blaming the troops. But for the past few months, Bush has blamed the commanders and generals and troops for any and all military miscalculations in the war. If we don’t hold him responsible next Tuesday, will we ever have another chance?

GERMANS FOR BUSH: The biggest newspaper in Germany supports Bush’s re-election. No kidding.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Although it clearly would be a huge psychological defeat, a Bush loss could also be a liberating moment. Conservatism has thrived when it was in opposition – ‘standing athwart history yelling stop!’ as the founder of the National Review put it. In the past decade since the Republicans took Congressional power, however, countless one-time conservative revolutionaries have merely become shills for corporate power. Note how tepid and ineffective the conservative opposition was to the big government and coporatist Medicare drug bill. Today, the lefties are as robust as the right once was. A Bush loss will allow conservatives to once again revel in the joy of being the besieged and aggrieved opposition. And the last time we had divided government, we enjoyed restrained spending, tax cuts and genuine entitlement reform. Sure, conservative big-shots will miss their visits to the West Wing following a Bush loss. But the movement might find that it is the best thing that could happen. ” – Marshall Wittmann, on his revived blog, Bull Moose. Yes, a Bush defeat would be a boon for conservatism. A Bush victory will result in its continued decline.