Here’s a super-duper meta-analysis from Princeton of all the recent state polls, including all the parameters of turn-out, undecideds, etc etc. So it ends up with a statistical likelihood, not a prediction. Worth checking out. I should also add that Slate’s poll, leaning toward Bush, has this caveat:
Here is the math that matters: If all the states in which the data lean discernibly to either candidate vote as the polls suggest, the election will come down to Florida and Ohio. If Bush takes both, he wins. If Kerry takes either, he wins. We assess the probability in each state independently, and we assume that neither state’s turnout affects the other’s. Since the odds in each of the two states are approximately 50-50, with a tiny edge to Bush, the combined probability of Kerry winning the election is about 70 to 75 percent.
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The Dish 