HUNGARY QUITS

Another small loss for the coalition in Iraq. Poland is also phasing its contribution out.

TWO OPENINGS: There are two vacancies looming in the world: Chief Justice Rehnquist and Yassir Arafat. Obviously, I don’t mean to compare them substantively, but the president’s response to each will be instructive as to his future course in the next few years. A vacancy on the Supreme Court will lead to a revealing new pick. Will the president cater to his Christian-right base and nominate someone steadfastly opposed to abortion rights and gay rights? You bet he will. I cannot imagine him choosing a Souter or a Kennedy, especially now after his convincing win. Arafat’s looming death suggests another choice. If a less noxious Palestinian leader emerges, will Bush use the shift to become more engaged in the Israel-Palestinian conflict as a means to encourage the U.N. or other European leaders to play a more conciliatory role in Iraq? Will he tilt against Sharon? Again I doubt it very much. The great mystery now is whether this president will use a second term to moderate somewhat or to forge ahead to the right. My bet is on the latter.