THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM TURNS

I have to say that the more you look at the data, the less convincing it is that Bush won based on a religious right, anti-gay swing. Glenn has more details. One other thing: there were three swing states in which anti-marriage amendments were on the ballot. In Michigan and Oregon, the bans on gay unions passed, and Kerry still won. Ohio was the exception. If the GOP decides that the lesson of all this is to press on and make anti-gay amendments their signature issue, they will over-play their hand. Especially on the federal level. After all, isn’t the logic of state amendments a federalist one? Let each state decide. Don’t nationalize this issue one way or the other.