FALLUJA

It’s simply impossible to know how things are going there from this distance. But I was concerned to read the following on Stratfor (subscription only):

No Iraqi army or national guard unit fought in Al Fallujah, sources close to the Interim Iraqi Government (IIG) say. Iraqi national guard units reportedly have refused to attack guerrilla positions; their commanders have been unable to make soldiers move forward and some officers are siding with the troops. Only the Iraqi army’s special forces unit, which is mostly Kurdish, helped search for hidden guerrillas behind U.S. Marine lines outside the city. Hundreds of Iraqi soldiers have deserted to bases around Al Fallujah, the sources added.

Stratfor is not a lefty outfit. It’s just an excellent source for military analysis. Belmont Club, on the other hand, thinks things are going swimmingly:

I believe (speculation alert!) that the enemy mobile defense is nearly at an end; that his active response has probably fallen to pieces much quicker than he anticipated and they are probably going to concentrate their resistance into mutually supportive strongpoints or explosive barriers fairly soon. The enemy’s remaining hope is to hit the “jackpot” by demolishing a building or blowing up a street just as US forces occupy or overrun it. As they become squeezed into a smaller and smaller area, the risk that US forces will run into an exploding house or building will increase. But the rapid progress of the last two nights may be tempting US commanders to accept the risks and snap at the enemy’s heels. Going fast may prevent the enemy from setting up their defense.

Belmont Club, of course, is a pro-Bush partisan site. But that doesn’t mean they’re wrong in this case. And, given the overwhelming superiority of the coalition forces, military victory is surely not in much doubt. The question is: how many civilian casualties? How many insurgents killed? How successfully did the Iraqi units perform? What is the political fall-out? Let’s hope for the best.

WHAT’S THE 36TH? Defense Tech has the skinny on the Iraqi armed forces in Falluja. Basically, they’re Kurds.