Thanks for your emails. Here’s a poll of Americans’ expectations, which is not encouraging for the Bush administration. Here are some of your comments:
Why is there a need to “judge” the success of these elections in terms of quantifiable rates of turn out, or numbers of polling places, or Iraqis who have died in the polling line? In my opinion, these are simply numbers which some politician or some journalist will be able point to and to wait gleefully to say “Ah ha! Further proof of failure.” There will be NO measure of voter turn out that will satisfy those who wish to oppose the Administration. Look at Afghanistan.
But is there a measure of failure that supporters of the administration would take seriously? This struck me as a sane judgment:
It will signify success when more Iraqi’s can vote under less dangerous circumstances in their second election.
Then this piece of skepticism:
Andrew, the “success” of elections in Iraq will be whether the election matters at all. If two weeks from now there is a new “leader” who does not have the police power to back him, he will continue his residence in the highly fortified fortress of the green zone, with no practical control over the population, over laws, the courts etc…. These elections will not be successful… Your mind does not understand tribal culture, culture based on ethnicity and tribal loyalties. Neither does the mind of Bush or Cheney understand this.
On the other hand:
Turnout in U.S. offyear elections runs around 40%. If the element of well-grounded physical fear is thrown in, I’d say 40 % overall is an excellent result. I doubt very much that between fear and antipathy for the regime, three of ten Sunnis will turn out. Nor need they to play the political game: the rules give them a vote over the constitution the new assembly will draft. The real test is whether the newly elected regime will be legitimate. That in in turn reflects whether those who do turn out are roughly representative of those who don’t. By this standard, the regime will be embraced by the better-off Shi’a and the Kurds, but not by Sadr’s people or the Sunni. It adds up, I fear, to a regime that commands little more respect from the sectors of the population who support terrorism than does the present, US-installed, regime.
My revised criteria: 45 percent turnout for Kurds and Shia, 25 percent turnout for the Sunnis, under 200 murdered. No immediate call for U.S. withdrawal. Reasonable?
The Dish 