The major revelation of the day, it seems to me is something that could have been predicted. And that is the impact of the actual experience of voting, of getting your finger dyed, or sharing in a new and communal rite of democracy. Regardless of the results, that is in itself a success. Once people taste democracy, they will never forget it. That memory itself is an insurance against its future eclipse. Consciousness matters. And we have just seen a change in consciousness.
“I’M FAKING IT”: Kaus again goes after me for positing varying standards for future success in Iraq’s elections. Ten days ago, I said I predicted success and defined it, when pressed, as 80 percent turnout in most regions, enthusiasm among the voters, and better than expected turnout among Sunnis. My general point for the past couple of months has been it is foolish to under-estimate the power of elections. After absorbing some of the more sober analysis coming from the region, I revised those standards down, asking for input from readers, and openly displayed all this on my blog. I think I over-estimated the kind of violence that the insurgents might unleash and was being too Pollyannish about turnout in some areas so I came up with some final pre-election yard-sticks to hold myself to. All of this was an attempt to quantify a subjective thing like “success.” I was trying to avoid just post-hoc rationalization, so I couldn’t be accused of spinnning whatever result emerged. Now Kaus jumps all over this, for what reason I’m not sure. Some standards I lowered (turnout); others I raised (violence). It was all open, clear, and honest. And for this exercise in transparency, Kaus accuses me of “faking it.” Faking what, exactly? Expertise? Hardly. Clairvoyance? But I openly revised my criteria and posted alternative predictions and arguments! And when you write every day or more than once a day, such revisions are inevitable. So what’s my crime exactly? I have no idea. By the way, Mickey: an actual event happened in Iraq today. Not some pundit’s take on another pundit. You were against the war (I think). You now regret being against it? Or are those simple questions for other bloggers to wrestle with?
The Dish 