THE BUDGET

It would be extremely churlish of me not to offer some praise for at least the aspirations of Bush’s new budget. Cutting non-defense, non-homeland security discretionary spending by one percent in real terms is admirable. The question, however, is: how much of this is grandstanding? The biggest problems are obviously Medicare (which Bush has made far, far worse), Medicaid, and Social Security. Give Bush credit for at least raising the odds of some benefit cuts in the latter (regardless of the personal accounts debate, why the hell not peg future benefits to prices rather than wages?) But the underlying picture is still one of growing debt and future big tax hikes. The tax hikes will be Bush’s legacy – whenever they come. Or as one commentator put it today: “President Bush would never admit this, but he has transformed the party into the party of permanent big deficits.” You can say that again. I’ll take the president truly seriously if he vetoes any spending bill that ducks his farm subsidy cuts, and if he raises the cap on payroll taxes for social security reform. That’s one very telling marker for his earnestness. For my part I simply don’t believe in Bush’s conviction on this. He has never spoken passionately about shrinking government; he has rarely attacked the idea that government itself shouldn’t be the cure for everyone’s problems; he has never vetoed a spending bill. I’d like to trust him, but after four years of fiscal abandon, why should anyone? So: distrust and verify.